MICHIGAN Hockey 2010-11: Balancing The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly — Part 2

Posted at 4:00pm — 12/28/2010

MICHIGAN Hockey 2010-11: Balancing The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly — Part 2

Balancing The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly:

Michigan fans had higher expectations for this team, considering the strength lies in their first and second lines and goaltending depth. There is apprehension, though, in the inconsistent performance from their “go-to” seniors- mainly guys like Hagelin, Rust, Caporusso and Hogan. None of them are performing at what would be deemed “Hobey Baker” type seasons. In their wins, they have been very good- in their losses and in some of their ties they have simply disappeared at times. Look for a stronger second half from these three forwards and hopefully a healthy return for Hogan.

Some good things to point to:

Much better result than this same Michigan team (less our graduated seniors from last season) than at this time last year. This team will compete for the CCHA regular season crown and should be in a favorable spot to qualify for the NCAA tourney without having to make a miracle run through the CCHA tourney to do it.

Michigan is getting balanced offensive scoring from most of the roster. There is no super scoring threat like Michigan teams of the near past that had guys the caliber of Hensick, Cammalleri, Tambellini, Cogliano, Comrie etc. Carl Hagelin leads the team with 19 points (9-10-19) with Louie Caporusso next at 16 points (6-10-16) and a team leading +14. These are not exactly the kind of offensive numbers we expected from two NHL caliber players who were thought to be Hobey Baker candidates. Still, if you were to look at the first half numbers, Michigan is averaging nearly 3.5 goals per game good for a top twenty standing in the country. The offense has been bolstered by three forwards with double digit results: Matt Rust shook off a slow start to climb up to third on the team in scoring with a 3-10-13 line. (He is currently tied with uber defenseman Jon Merrill at 5-8-13.) David Wohlberg has quietly potted eight goals to go with two assists for ten points. Chris Brown has contributed ten points (2-8-10) to go along with his usual gritty position along the boards and in front of opposing goaltenders. Three other forwards, Scooter Vaughn (7-2-9), Kevin Lynch (6-3-9) and AJ Treais (3-6-9) have chipped in with nine points each. Luke Moffatt has added eight points in his first year and third year vet Luke Glendening has tallied seven points, including the GWG against Ohio State a few weeks ago.

Another bright spot has been the blueline corps. Merrill is a budding star and has quietly assumed a leadership role. Junior Brandon Burlon has established himself as a steady, physical defender with a good shot. His 4-8-12 is good for fifth in points. Senior Chad Langlais continues to build on his iron man reputation, not missing a single game in his career. He sports a +9 while logging yeoman’s ice time. Most fans would like to see more offense from him, but as long as he is keeping the puck out of the net, the coaches won’t complain. Junior Greg Pateryn has been rotating in and out of the lineup, but has added 2-5-7 during his 15 games this season. Senior Tristin Llewellyn probably has been the most improved defenseman this season, cutting his careless and untimely penalties dramatically while still posting an impressive +7. Sophomore Lee Moffie still requires a bit more polishing defensively, but adds a stronger upside offensively to the Michigan attack. Freshmen Mac Bennett and Kevin Clare are more stay at home defensive types, but have added depth. Overall, the defense has aided the offense many times in the first half, and, as previously discussed, is a top five points making squad nationally- especially when given power play opportunities.

Not much can be said about the goaltending either way. Shawn Hunwick has been saddled with some tough luck on Friday nights, combined with some pretty lackluster or sloppy play in front of him. He is a better goalie than his 3-3-4 record indicates. He has a decent 2.52 GAA and a good .914 save %. His problem has been the timing of the goals he has allowed, especially in tight games. He stood tall in the tie at UNH, but was the victim of some softer goals in other ties/losses. He’ll look to regain some better focus now that he’ll be carrying the load in the second half. One knock on the netminder is his positioning, which he tends to overextend at times. Part of that is due to his height which forces him to wander further from the crease to cut down angles. He’ll need to improve this aspect of his game.

Bryan Hogan was statistically stronger than Hunwick, with a 7-2 record along with a 2.11 GAA and a .923 save %. Frankly, the team played much better in front of him and usually played with more desperation coming off poor Friday night performances. Hogan was just as soft at times mostly due to his mental game, but is a fundamentally stronger netminder. His injury will provide an incentive for his teammates to compete harder for Hunwick and will delay any further discussion about installing one primary goaltender- at least until playoff time.

Michigan is giving up an average of just over two goals a game- not bad at 15th in the country- but certainly not as stingy when it comes to playing better opponents. Their average against ranked teams is exceedingly higher and will be a factor come playoff time.

Some concerns:

Michigan’s third and fourth line depth is much deeper than last season- which saw a defection at the holiday break as well as the loss of a top forward prior to the season. Freshmen forwards Luke Moffatt (2-6-8) and Jacob Fallon (1-2-3) came into the program with solid credentials and were once looked upon to create instant offense. Both had struggled with better competition prior to their start at Michigan, and by most accounts are not carrying the offensive punch they were targeted for. Look for both players to be put on the spot in the second half of the season to carry a bigger offensive load.

Veteran forward Ben Winnett (2-4-6) has been somewhat of a disappointment, as his offense has been suppressed and his play has been hampered due to injuries suffered early in the season. He does have a GWG to his credit and stays out of the box. But his defensive presence must improve- as does the energy he needs to provide on the bottom end of the forward line rotation. Not much to complain about the remainder of the forwards- with Sophomores Lindsay Sparks sitting out with injury (he has only been in six games this season) and Jeff Rohrkemper struggling to break into the lineup (no points in two games). Freshman Derek DeBlois is a spunky forward that has also struggled to break into the starting lineup- seven games this season- but has three assists to show for his efforts and is in line to gain more playing time.

Overall, the Michigan depth beyond their goal scorers has provided adequate offense and defense- but is not as strong as in previous seasons. The biggest difference seems to be the strength and size of the third and fourth liners- quick, skilled but small. Michigan won’t get outskated, but has struggled against bigger, more physical teams.

Bryan Hogan’s injury is a big concern- and can be used to rally the team in the second half, or prove to be disastrous if he is shelved for the rest of his final season at Michigan. Shawn Hunwick a fine goaltender, but at some point will need to prove that he can be exceptional- like he was in the playoffs last season.

Some absolute improvement needed:

Michigan’s special teams for the most part have been underwhelming. The power play was sitting around 15-16 % execution most of the season- with the most outstanding games coming at UNH and against MSU at the Big Chill. Still, sitting at 30-35th in the country is not atypical of a Berenson team, and will need to perk up in the second half. Most seasons the PP is at around 20% efficiency and at least 15th in the country. More importantly, it will be needed for bigger games against Miami and other stiffer competition in the second half. On the other side of the ledger is the penalty kill unit which is hovering around 83%- or ~30th in the country. This is highly unacceptable since it usually dictates a turning point in any game. Most cases a Michigan PK sits at 90%, or a top ten unit in the country. There is no real answer for it being as low as it is except that Michigan has consistently taken more penalties in the past two seasons, which wears out the special teams units quicker while the rest of the bench stiffens up. The other issue has been the goaltending has not been stellar during a penalty kill which tends to deflate the bench, also. Some of this is due to the competition- Wisconsin, Minnesota and UNH have exceptional power plays. Still, the need is there to emphasize this aspect of the game.

The number of penalties has steadily improved over the course of the first half of the season- but Michigan still is taking an average of fifteen minutes per game ranking them around 20th in the country. Reduce the nonessential, lazy type penalties- or the undisciplined penalties- and there will be less opportunity to kill penalties. It is common sense to assume that the more Michigan is able to roll their lines without consistent interruption from penalties, the better this swift skating, up tempo team will perform.

Part 3 tomorrow we will discuss “The Second Half and the GLI Preview”

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!