GBMWolverine: Big Ten Basketball – A Reborn Power??
Posted at 5:30pm — 12/27/2010
GBMWolverine: Big Ten Basketball – A Reborn Power??
The ACC is down, for a second straight year of all things, so the end of days is near? Hopefully not, but things change on the landscape of college sports and this year a mix of some talented youngsters and excellent upperclassman should spell success for the Big Ten.
No one knows what will happen in the NCAA tournament, but clearly this year the Midwest’s powerhouse conference has a very good chance of sending two teams to the final eight, perhaps even the final four.
For years five or six have been the magic numbers of Big Ten teams going to the big dance. So this premise begs the question will this be the year the Big Ten actually gets seven invites? This could happen, but what will happen is one or two pretty good teams will end up on the wrong side of the bubble. Keep in mind the NCAA has expanded the tournament somewhat since last year, having 68 teams in the field, a scenario that will provide some early week excitement as two teams will play hard to get the right to play a fresh number one team a few days later. Perhaps the major conferences will sneak some teams in against the very bottom seeds and advance onward.
Here is a preview of the entire Big Ten. The predictions will categorize four separate groups: elite; tournament probable; in need of some help or luck, and out of luck. Last year’s rankings went well with only Penn State falling out (downward) of the projected categories. Michigan was selected on the edge of the needs help and out of luck range, exactly where they finished. But games are not played on paper, or the final score created in the mind; so here goes.
The Elite:
Clearly there are two elite teams in the Big Ten, one has had its difficulties, Michigan State, and one, Ohio State, has made everyone else’s life difficult. Ohio State currently has five starters in double figures and two more contributing five points, a very solid core.
Last year, the prediction was for Michigan State to finish first, followed by Ohio State and Purdue. This year the order is flipped, with Ohio State being the overwhelming choice to finish first.
The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded and in a perfect situation to make a run to the championship game. The squad has several important returnees, some of whom many thought would be playing pro somewhere by now. In addition, Ohio State boasts perhaps the best freshman class in the nation and almost assuredly the best single freshman in this year’s crop, Jarred Sullinger.
First, the veterans will be denoted and discussed. Senior David Lighty would be the star player on almost any Division 1 team in the nation. At Ohio State, Lighty has been a second or third option his entire career, holding down his scoring totals. He plays very good defense and loves to take big shots. On any other team, David would be hitting 20 plus points per game and again will probably be a second option to Sullinger, who will likely lead the team in scoring. He seems resigned to his role on a team that is very balanced and is a big asset for Ohio State. Clearly he is the best number two option in the conference.
Most teams would love to have a big 6’6” pure shooter capable of putting down a half dozen three pointers a game. Ohio State fans have been less than kind in their appraisal of senior Jon Diebler. He is what he is, a big guy who can hang out at the three-point line and launch stationary jump shots. Jon is poised to have a big year already hitting over fifty percent of his three pointers. This percentage will decrease during conference play with bigger defenders who should be more in Diebler’s face. But Jon has a golden opportunity this year, as he will be the fourth option in the Ohio State offense, after Sullinger, Lighty, and Buford. This means he could have several open looks as opponents will be doubling down on Diebler and paying attention to Buford, who sets up frequently on the opposite side.
The next veteran is junior William Buford, another veteran who can light it up. Like the others named above, Buford is capable of 20 plus points any given game. Buford is the best third option in the league and Diebler is the best fourth option in the league.
Dallas Lauderdale, a one-time starter, is another senior who should be a great asset to Ohio State this upcoming year. He is a physical monster, one who plays very tough and may lead the team in fouls this year. He provides plenty of relief for Sullinger inside and can be a part of a tough inside game if Ohio State goes to a two post set.
The newcomers have received plenty of attention in Columbus. And next year four more blue chippers are already signed. So if anyone wishes to compete against Ohio State in the next half-decade the recruiting better go well.
If anyone is wondering is Jared Sullinger really that good, the short answer is yes. He is big, has been well coached by his father, a former Ohio State player, and has multiple skills. Even as a freshman, he can control a game, much like former Ohio State big man Greg Oden. Sullinger is more versatile than Oden in this opinion. Also of opinion is the belief that Sullinger will not come out after his freshman year like Oden did. His father values education and that tenet should filter down, but time will tell. Sullinger is a top five draft pick as of now, and by next year a top three pick is probable.
Aaron Craft, a guard, has played very well averaging over five points per game. J.D. Weatherspoon, Sullinger’s high school teammate, is a 6’ 7” highly rated freshman that is currently averaging about two points per game. Next year Craft and Weatherspoon will be ready to contribute as a starter or first off the bench.
As a whole, the potential of this Ohio State team cannot be underestimated. It is possible that this team makes a run with only a few losses (say 0-3) heading into the tournament. A first or second seed is almost certain, baring tragic occurrences such as a season ending injury or two. Certainly, the last thing Motta wants to hear is can Ohio State duplicate the 1976 Indiana team. But with Duke’s recent big injury, Ohio State may be in the best position in the nation to make a run.
Do not feel sorry for Michigan State. Yes, indeed the Spartans have lost four games so far this season, but this has happened before, followed by a big Spartan recoup. Izzo has pledged that the team will get things turned around. The only thing standing in Michigan State’s way, in this corner, is the very sloppy play on offense. To get better, the Spartans simply must take care of the ball better and play efficient, “smart” basketball. For certain, the size and talent are present to make a big run late, when it counts.
Three Spartans are averaging in double figures, Summers, Lucas, and Green. Four more Spartans are averaging over five points, again giving Michigan State a nice seven-man core.
Seniors Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas are both scoring near 15 points per game. Lucas can be a difference maker when he is on, and even being only 6’1” is one of the few players in the Big Ten that can control a game.
Draymond Green is the banger that every major program covets. He is currently averaging about 12 points per game and 9 rebounds. It will be tough play and rebounding that will determine how far the Spartans advance this year.
Korie Lucious, a junior, has been a little bit of an enigma but is still a solid contributor averaging over 7 points per game and 4 assists.
Delvon Roe, like Green at 230 pounds, is another typical Spartan big banger, averaging about 7 points and 5.5 rebounds a game.
Freshman Keith Appling and Sophomore Garrick Sherman provide this veteran team some youth. Appling is a guard and Sherman is another big body Michigan State can run out on the floor to control the boards.
So, what is stopping the Spartans? Foul shooting has been suspect, five Spartans already have 20 or more turnovers, and the shooting is way down, with most of the first seven shooting around 44%.
Next up will be a collection of teams that should make the NCAA tournament, but not having the firepower to compete with Ohio State and Michigan State.
Written by GBMWolverine Staff
Go Blue — Wear Maize!