Michigan Basketball: Almost There-Basketball Ready to Hit Tough Competition.
Posted at 8:00am — 12/21/2010
Michigan Basketball: Almost There-Basketball Ready to Hit Tough Competition.
One month ago, sitting and postulating at the end of a fine cigar, and bringing forth predictive formulas known to be perilous but better than darts, I placed Michigan in a window of about 14 wins as the most likely number, and 16 as a top edge.
That top-edge win number was adjusted last week to 17. And the statement that Coach Beilein deserves high praise for anything over 18 wins still stands.
The youngsters have gained great experience the last five weeks. With the exception of the very consistent Morris, most of the young crop will have games in double digits followed by games where disappearance is a real phenomenon. Morris is showing floor leadership, making far more good decisions than bad ones. His style of getting to the hoop is a little unorthodox, but his long arms and height make his strange brand of floaters and weird angles work.
Morris is still an ok ball handler in the back-court and needs help getting the ball across the line against serious pressure. He has some mustard in his game, but Coach Beilein seems resolute in letting Morris keep his on court swagger, a limited quality in the UM program.
UM’s version of junior, Tim Hardaway, will probably show the greatest growth of the youngsters if his shots start to drop consistently and he develops the ability to get inside and collect fouls. Hardaway could pick up inside points similar to Manny Harris if the program places a premium on that offensive option. What a stroke, and playing so much his freshman year should yield the improvement we all viewed with Morris the last part of the season in 2009-2010.
There are other freshmen still a little lost on the floor, but experience is the best tonic. So, say ahhhh and maybe a good dose will make a difference this year.
The inside guys are competing, getting a reasonable share of rebounds, and are good enough athletes to play four or five philosophy within the offense.
The two contributing juniors, Novak and Douglass, have moments but are willing to take (and make) some key shots that are game turners.
The same noted weaknesses still apply and will throughout the season. Tough, physical teams will get more than a fair share of offensive rebounds against UM. Two good passes around the perimeter usually finds the outside rotation about a second too slow. The middle will break down at times (and not always the fault of the inside defenders) and easy buckets will result. The philosophy of giving the bucket and saving the foul may be a good one for this team. The team still does not attempt to get to the rim enough, with the exception of Morris, for foul shots, leaving the live or die by the three mantra alive for another day.
Michigan should win its next game and then the fun starts, seeing how the young Wolverines react to the physical play and pressure of the Big Ten. It will be important for this team to not fold up if the wins do not come in the first half of conference play, and instead concentrate on getting better.
There are obtainable goals on the horizon, namely tournament play. But even with the wins accrued so far, it will be tough for this young bunch to fight through the conference schedule and gain enough wins to make the NCAA. The conference schedule will pump up the RPI’s, etc. But 19 wins is probably the minimum to gain entry, perhaps 20. This means gaining wins against six other Big Ten teams that will likely make the tournament. The fight for 9-9 in the conference will be important, crucial to tournament selection.
Next year, UM will have additional help at the guard spot. The thing that must happen for UM to climb another notch next year is guys getting bigger and better, across the entire spectrum of skills.
But that is for next year. There will be upsets this year, both ways, and close games at home. UM needs to steal a few of those to set the table for future success.
Written by GBMWolverine Staff — Doc4Blu
Go Blue — Wear Maize!