GBMWolverine: MICHIGAN VERSUS ILLINOIS — WHAT HAPPENED AND WHAT IT MEANS

Posted at 8:00am — 11/7/2010

GBMWolverine: MICHIGAN VERSUS ILLINOIS — WHAT HAPPENED AND WHAT IT MEANS

The smoke has cleared from the NCAA investigation, and overall, as AD Brandon said there were mistakes, and mistakes have consequences. So, now we get back to football.

The first quarter highlighted a maligned defense running to the ball and playing very hard. The end result was being put in severe distress by an offense and special team group that committed three turnovers in the first quarter, unreal, what else can be said.

Surprisingly, the UM line opened up some good running opportunities and the backs broke one now and then, obviously Illinois is focused on Denard and Denard, and appears willing to give up an occasional decent run to a running back. See Hopkins run, run Hopkins run, run more Hopkins (apologies to Dick, Jane, and Spot, youngsters ask the oldsters about this).

Michigan caught Illinois twice early for Roundtree touchdowns on misreads and the not so spectacular looking Roundtree just continues to be Michigan’s best play producer in the passing game.

Michigan reciprocated by having the ends and contain guys take themselves out of plays or getting blocked into the sideline for long gains, ala 64 yards on a simple option play.

In the first half, Denard was again just barely off, but off enough to break up the chance to score often (as in every time). So, far Michigan has stopped Michigan more so than Illinois. Denard is getting close and when his accuracy gets there- look out. All of you may hear comments about his shoulder health. Shoulder soreness and irritation can affect a quarterback’s accuracy, the ball can sail a little high because the qb has a tendency to not follow through with velocity and the motion simply stops prematurely. The view here is that Denard is just off, and forget the shoulder, and while injured if he is healthy enough to play he has enough to get it done. A season ending injury is another issue.

Going down the stretch in the first half, three scores were given up by the defenses in less than two minutes, two of course by Michigan. So, the first half was a wash and one might argue that the second half may be influenced by halftime adjustments or lack of therefore.

It is halftime and the following points might justify discussion: (1) Avery has been toasted, but at least is in the ballpark. The bet here is that Courtney can play and in most programs would be on the scout team and lifting as a red-shirt freshman. (2) Michigan can make plenty of hay through the air, so it will be interesting to see how much this happens since the Illinois defense is so obvious in stopping Denard’s runs. (3) Denard has resisted the temptation to just take off and run and instead has hit some big passes. This may be partly due to some directive to save his body. (4) As with the defense, there is no special miracle for the kickoff coverage team, the bleeding is getting profuse. Some kid better make a great play to save UM when it counts.

The second half started with a third quarter that imitated normal football around the country; Michigan scored seven points and Illinois went scoreless. Both teams had chances on 4th down and decided on field goals, both were unsuccessful. Ron Zook’s call will get the most scrutiny as Illinois opted for a field goal try on 4th and 1 against a defense that likely could not have made the stop.

The fourth quarter started with an Illinois touchdown on an uncovered back out of the backfield as Michigan did not defend the backside. The next series saw Illinois continue to attack the middle of Michigan’s defense, both in the air and on the ground. Receivers must love to run over the middle with no one within five or ten yards.

Then the big injury to Denard and Tate comes in and lays the ball on the carpet; timing is everything. The offense breaks down and misses several big opportunities, one opportunity being taken away by Lewan’s critical holding call. Lewan is an average Big Ten tackle as a freshman, his future sure is bright.

Illinois was pinned deep and it certainly appeared as if the Illini did not pick up the first down. Two balls were ruled as incompletions and not Michigan fumble recoveries, one looked very obvious, but no booth replays; the boys must have been busy eating or snoozing in the booth.

Illinois ran the ball after the tough first down spot and was stopped on another 4th and 1. Michigan is smart enough to not fall for the line up on 4th down and Illinois does punt.

Tate is moving the ball on short passes and a couple of short runs. Is it safe to say that Denard is a great athlete and Tate is very good? Michigan continues to move the ball in a methodical short yardage manner, with control and success. Tate’s adventures continue, this time with the moniker of excellent tagged on as the adjective. The score is 45-45, a great entertainment value for fans of offensive football but of little substance to a team needing a win to go bowling. Can Michigan stop the Illini on a kickoff? The answer was yes, and Michigan also stopped the Illini forcing a punt. Michigan then gave the ball back on a Forcier interception, unreal. And so overtime, a microcosm of the entire history of Rich Rodriguez’s regime comes to the stage. There is no margin for error, the benefits could be enormous, and so to could be the down side.

Michigan is on the ropes somewhat but hit the big pass down inside the ten-yard line. Shaw scores and it is the Illini’s turn. The tension mounts and Illinois faces a fourth and less than a yard and scores on a dive to tie the score at 52. Of those 52, 18 can be attributed to the mistakes of the Michigan offense. The defense is giving superb effort but coming up a nickel short, based on assignments more than anything. On to overtime number two.

Illinois runs a backside pass play and again the entire pass defense breaks down on misdirection. Easy touchdown and Michigan must now score. Michigan catches a break and Hemingway hauls in a deflection for a touchdown, the not automatic extra point is good and the score is 59 all, here we go and hold your breath those faint of heart (most of us). Michigan runs the ball with Tate to the five and two personal fouls takes the ball to the 1. No power formation and no power back, but Michigan barely scores on third down and makes the all important two point conversion, 67-59. This conversion could be the play of the season. Illinois again throws backside for a huge gain. Illinois scores easily and the game is down to one play. Michigan sends the fort up the middle, smart call in this corner, contains the quarterback and pulls off the mild upset that VEGAS said was not an upset. Michigan wins the game, loses against the spread and bunches of people say thank you as Illinois covers the +3 spread, barely. Wow.

So what does this mean? Well the obvious is always a great place to start. Michigan continues on life support, as slim as it is. Tate Forcier fought back after a potentially terminal turnover and deserves high praise. Even though Michigan gave up points, the team did not give up; in great part due to coaches that made it clear that they sure were not giving up.

The secondary, recently reformed, remains a shambles, and frankly Illinois should have taken further and earlier liberties. Assignment difficulties overruled talent and speed regarding this mess. Expect Purdue to run backside and crosses over the middle all day as well as read inside. Do not expect Purdue to be an easy mark, the Boilers played a little better Saturday and the game is on the road.

There were no position groups that deserve a shining star reward. The defense is what it is and all the coaches can do is attempt to limit damage.

There should be no hostility directed toward the athletes, the defense played more physical and never gave in and the tackling was better, when a Michigan defender was close enough to tackle. Big holes remain but at least something can be built upon, albeit in a game where Michigan gave up over 60 points. Winning can help an attitude but ability and carrying out responsibilities carry performance.

The offensive line played very well against a quick Illinois defensive line. Michigan needed to pass and the Wolverines were successful enough to cash in a tough win. Let it not be forgotten that the offense scored plenty of points in regulation against a defense that has been by and large very good. Things change from week to week, but no one else has hit the Illini D like UM did on Saturday.

Michigan now enters the third week of toss up games with a one and one mark. Some believe that Michigan must win two of the three toss-ups for good things to happen down the road. Mr. Brandon will decide the course of action.

The early prediction on the GBMWolverine site by posters (August) was seven wins. This now appears to be a likelihood, although Wisconsin can play only ok on the road. Purdue remains a big game and Michigan may not escape on the road with a basketful of turnovers.

The Wolverines are bowl eligible, but six wins probably sets up a “Pizza Bowl” type ending. How bad is Denard injured? Stay tuned as information becomes available.

What a ride, but at least the ride stayed on the track. Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride came to Ann Arbor, so who will come to Purdue?

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!