GBMWolverine: What May Happen — Michigan / Iowa — Preview
Posted at 8:00am — 10/16/2010
GBMWolverine: What May Happen — Michigan / Iowa — Preview
After a tough, partly self-inflicted loss to Michigan State, Michigan faces a team that has won 19 out of the last 22 games. That team is Iowa, the winner of last year’s Orange Bowl, 24-14 over Georgia Tech and a team that came close to beating Ohio State. Iowa was also a team that came close to losing against Michigan. But all of that was last year.
Forward to 2010 and Michigan is 5-1 and Iowa is 4-1, setting up some anticipation for the match-up as per last year. Iowa lost a very close game in the desert to Arizona, a place that is not the easiest place to play in September. Iowa, on the crest of last year, has very high hopes for 2010. Ohio State fans and media consider Iowa the most likely team to give the Buckeyes a game in the conference. Most would consider Iowa having a bye week to prepare for Denard Robinson and Michigan as a clear plus.
Iowa is a team that has been pretty consistent compared to many of the yin-yang teams that frequent the college football landscape. Coach Ferentz is accomplished, even though some lament the lack of a wow factor. The program is solidly built on teaching fundamentals, outstanding line play, execution, winning the turnover battle, and intelligent play.
First off, here is a look at the match-up between Michigan’s offense and Iowa’s defense. Let us start with Iowa 101. Iowa loves to have opponents go the length of the field and beat themselves with fumbles, interceptions, and penalties. This team prefers confusing and forcing mistakes over an attacking mode. When the Iowa linebackers do attack, the result is usually positive. While not the classic bend but do not break defense model; that is indeed the basic idea of the scheme. Iowa may play plenty of nickel and dime formations against Denard and the spread, but the Hawkeyes love the base 4-3 with both the over and under looks. Iowa loves to keep two safeties deep, but will use one to sneak up into the running game on probable running situations.
Iowa’s defensive line is outstanding, one of the nation’s best. It is anchored by monster end Adrian Clayborn, a player who returned, temporarily forsaking big NFL dollars. This line is good enough to rush the passer without constant linebacker blitzing. It is good enough to push the inside gaps (as did MSU) and probably take away the staple zone inside read. The defensive line is also good enough to maintain the edge and take away leverage on the outside, freeing up the linebackers to make tackles for short gains.
Any ground attack at all will be well earned as Iowa is giving up only about 70 yards per game on the ground. Denard will almost certainly be Michigan’s leading ground gainer, and his talents alone could easily net over 70 yards.
Michigan will feel obligated to run the inside read option, but little should be expected, although all the Wolverines may need is one big play, sometime somehow. But running some of the base plays over and over may be a losing proposition against the Iowa defense. Compounding the inside zone read theoretical difficulty is the likelihood that Iowa will play two deep safeties that will hold down the damage up the middle.
Running the stretch play to Clayborn’s side is not so promising, leaving Denard on the outside read and the wildcat as Michigan’s best bet to gain ground yardage.
But Michigan cannot win this game using the run as the primary weapon. Denard will do some damage but Michigan must pass to win and maybe pass to score. Last week Michigan State clearly played to stop the run and the successful attempt was to limit his effectiveness and force more passing. The passing possibilities were there against the Spartans, just not the execution.
Iowa has the luxury of using the linebackers to stop the running game of Denard and the passing game as well. Expect the linebackers to tighten up and even spread to the wide side out on the slots on first and ten and short yardage in a 4-3 under look. Expect the linebackers to drop back and help create a deep pocket on third and long, hoping for an opposition mistake. Expect the occasional sell out blitz and hope it gets picked up.
So what can the Michigan offense do to generate some yardage and stay in the game? Iowa’s scheme may help here. Iowa gives up few quick strikes but can also give up sustained drives, mostly through the air this season so far.
Flank the slots out, get the linebackers to commit outside position (further than normal is the Iowa tendency), and then run the quick slant. If Roundtree is the best option all day, then so be it, do it. Iowa wants to keep the play in front so some of the outside combo routes should yield some good results on the quick out, very basic against very basic. Iowa can be had on the quick fly. Michigan may or may not be able to run this off of play action. If there is not enough time to run a go pattern down the sideline using play action, then do it quickly from the pocket. Three seconds will be the time needed before ball release, four at the most. If Denard waits too long in the pocket and throws late, a two-deep, cover two safety will be waiting. Iowa plays enough zone that slants, hitches, and outs should get some yardage. A short, patient, precise passing game may just give Denard some wiggle room. Michigan will most likely try to run first, but using the pass to set up Denard’s scrambling may be a viable alternative.
A quick look at the nightmare match-up of the day the Iowa offense against the Michigan defense is next. What will Iowa do? The Hawkeyes can probably do about anything their little hearts desire, so we will likely see the base Iowa offense show its typical options.
On the surface many think the Iowa offense is tired, unexciting, and outmoded. These presumptions are patently faulty. Even though Iowa runs from an I formation and runs a single back with two tight ends, there are times that Iowa runs three wideouts and uses a shotgun. This is plenty with what the offense can do to an opponent. Using the two tight ends utilizes a clear strength of Iowa, the offensive line, and provides the ability to go to both sides equally. So, change up number 1. The counters from the running game and the waggle bootleg can do damage to a defense that does not stay at home or one that just flat out gets confused, or cannot cover. So, change up number 2. Iowa’s passing tree routes are intelligent and of sufficient number that it is hard to jump routes or play guessing games, although Stanzi can throw the most incredible Christmas presents at times. Iowa will accept short outs if the defense gives the yardage. Stanzi throws a nice ball on the slant and also the deep flag. And Iowa goes with the quick go route down the side hoping to get a defensive back with his back to the ball and providing the receiver with an advantage. If the backs retreat, the receivers (like all smart teams) just go to a spot and sit down. So, a pretty diverse passing game is change up three. The tight ends are used in the middle and must be accounted for as Michigan found out last year. So, change up four. Iowa will run the ball up the middle at the goal line and if the opposition sells out the back walks into the endzone out in the flat on play action.
But the bread and butter staple of the Iowa offense is still attacking from the I formation and Robinson is a very good back. Iowa is successful running the ball through the B gap area and then cutting back. Michigan has seen this scheme before and has made little if any progress defending the good inside run and cutback to the outside. Iowa can run the stretch with some effectiveness.
Iowa is a team that uses an offense based on intelligence, line play, and consistency rather than being the in-vogue sexy style. Lately the results have yielded wins, and in football wins are always in vogue. The view here is Iowa will be Michigan’s second best opponent this year. But football is football and quirky things can happen. Unfortunately, one thing that only the imagination can conjure up is Michigan shutting down Iowa’s offense enough to pull out the win. The biggest trend so far for Michigan in Big Ten play the last three years is to give up 30 or more points per game against about anyone. The Michigan offense will have to play its best game so far to score over thirty against Iowa, a tenuous situation at best.
Written by GBMWolverine Staff
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