GBMWolverine: Coach's Corner -- Michigan Football -- Michigan State at Michigan -- What May Happen

Posted at 6:00am — 10/9/2010

GBMWolverine: Coach’s Corner — Michigan Football — Michigan State at Michigan — What May Happen

Things to come:
Sometimes they happen and sometimes not. In this vein let us take a look at what may happen at Michigan Stadium on Saturday.

There already is excitement and there will be two teams planning on winning the game. One will win and one will not, and the fun part is to envision how the game will go.

The Overlay:
Both teams have strengths and perceived advantages. MSU is more physical, bigger in the offensive backfield (nice for short yardage), possesses on the surface better special team play, and is superior at the linebacker spots. Michigan is at home and Michigan has Denard Robinson, who is the torch-carrier for Michigan’s next advantage, speed.

About everything else is a wash including some small advantages to Michigan State at unit positions and an advantage of overall better defensive talent, which has provided more tangible, positive results for the Spartans than Michigan has obtained (about one touchdown less per game).

Michigan’s defense by some accounts is no mystery, and by other accounts a real mystery. Until a sequel emerges, the current mystery has been solved.

There are those who have stated that Michigan State is not a good team, that the talent is not that great, that the team will self-destruct, that the running backs are slow, that the quarterback is no good. I am not in agreement with any of the above. Michigan State has much more going for it than against. Whatever has happened in the past will remain there; Saturday’s game is independent of anything else in the long series history. There will be mistakes, probably by both teams, but linking them to the past is mere coincidence, not by cause.

There are commonalities known as age-old underlying assumptions that apply to football across the eras, but none necessarily guarantee results. One such assumption will be hailed again and again: the team that rushes the ball the best (that is highest total yardage) will win the game. This axiom applies to many football settings and is not exclusive to the UM-MSU series. None-the-less, this stat will be somewhat telling as to who controls the line of scrimmage. Neither team is likely to be stopped cold in the running game, but a huge running superiority would favor the most successful at this regimen.

Even though a yard is a yard, there will be interesting contrasts to observe. MSU is the traditional bully-boy tight end team. But the Spartans can get to the edge, break contain, and hurt a team outside the tackle slot in the boundary alley. The intended outcomes are to eat yardage, eat clock, control what is going on, keep the defense rested, physically tire the opponent, and win. There is nothing new to this formula and provided the outcomes are achieved it is difficult to beat a team that chews up 200 or more yards on the ground.

Michigan can chew up some ground, but lately Denard Robinson just runs past the defense, picking up large amounts of yardage with a minimum amount of time and play calling. Michigan State should be superior in the nose- to-nose short yardage situations. Michigan should hurt the Spartans if its offense is successful on first down, setting up some guessing on second and short for the Spartan defense.

Both teams could easily run for over 200 yards, maybe 250 yards each, The bet here is 200 for each is very doable.

There will not be much mystery to MSU’s attack; probe the A and B gaps and try to hit the edge. Then maybe run some misdirection early and throw out the play action pass for the bit hit. Even though Michigan is last in the universe in pass defense, MSU will not reinvent its usual structure for Saturday’s game. The MSU staff will see Michigan’s obvious weaknesses and pick the plays and the time to exploit. Michigan will have to change schemes, attempt to confuse, and make some great calls at the right time to stop the Spartans, on the ground and in the air. If anything is left that has not been tried, Saturday may be the day. There could be some 4-3, some 3-4, even some 3-5 if the 3-3 stack gets shredded or the defenders again cannot fulfill assignments. When a coaching staff has devoted so much time to the 3-3, it is difficult to jump ship until only the mast is above water.

The play action package works very well against linebackers who chase out of position or cannot cover. But the straight-back drop is also worrisome. Michigan State runs some quick outs and Cousins is very good at the deep flag (or post corner) between the corner and the safety coming over. Michigan has not covered that route all season and opponents have dropped several, or the quarterback has been off target several times, helping to minimize the damage. The use of the tight end on first down or short yardage situations could be potentially damaging to Michigan’s chances of getting the Spartans off the field.

Michigan can also cause concern by passing on first down and going deep enough to stop the safety packages. If protected, Denard can do equal damage with his arm as with his feet in this game, perhaps more. The backs must pass protect and understand the blocking assignments against the zone blitz, or important plays will get blown up. This is a good time for Michigan to get a little creative and give the Spartans a little dose of tight end blues. Koger can get down-field but he can also be very useful for third and short or red-zone play calling.

One would think the Michigan defense will load the box on short yardage and shoot some blitzers, other than Roh, hoping that the gambles work. This may be the time for fire sale safety blitzes from the bandit and strong positions.

Michigan State’s defensive philosophy as to how to contain Denard Robinson is a little more of a mystery but some assumptions can be made. Coach Dantonio likes the 4-3 zone-blitz package and he will start his plan to control Denard Robinson with the defensive tackles. The tackles will attempt to immediately disrupt the zone read by pushing the inside point of attack far enough to almost immediately take away the first option. Then expect outside contain guys to stand their ground while linebackers or a free safety sprints straight up the field denying Denard outside leverage, forcing a scramble. The most likely source for a blitz is the backside linebacker, the spread’s worst enemy. Even the corners may sell out and shoot, rotating the coverage to the safeties. The above may only materialize if the Spartans cannot shut down Denard early and go to a more high-risk Plan B.

Anything can happen, either team can win and the game could turn on a fluke or one monster play. But both teams will attack on offense, Michigan State will attack on defense and we will all see if the soft contain Michigan defense continues or a new deck of defensive cards is shuffled. Michigan State’s receivers are pretty good and Coach Robinson, like last week, may only go a different route as a course of last resort.

As stated for several months, this is the most important game on Michigan’s schedule. The Wolverines will play as such. Will this be good enough with all the liabilities? Both teams will gladly accept some charity from the other team on Saturday. Tighten the chin-strap, it will be that type of game.

As Ufer would say—WOW, don’t ya just love it?

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff

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