Mailbag question: Big Ten and the SEC
Mailbag question: Big Ten and the SEC
Hi GBMWolverine, this is a two-part question.
Question one concerns conference strength: what a difference one team makes, with Nebraska joining the fold the B10 just may be the strongest conference in the nation. If you put our top 5 up against the top 5 of what’s left of the former Big 12 and SEC you will see that the gap is not as big as some SEC residents will lead you to believe.
1) OSU – Even though I hate Ohio State they are the reigning B10 champs, for now, and beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl last season.
2) PSU – A strong #2 to match up to a B12 or SEC #2, this team beat LSU in a BCS bowl last season.
3) Iowa – Strong physical team that eats, sleeps and drinks defense. Will wear you down; beat Ga. Tech in 09 bowl
4) Wisconsin – Huge in the trenches, especially on OL, lunch pail team that gets it done, consistently a good run team.
5) Michigan or Michigan St. – it is time for Coach Rod and Michigan to finally get it together and 2010 will be the year the turn around starts, traditionally one of the best ever, just going through growing pains right now, but will be back
MSU – On the D side will be very tough soon, on O every year in recruiting they add quality skill guys, like Coach Rod, Coach Dantonio is trying to construct his team his way with his kind of players. Both Michigan teams will be upset specialists in 2010. Don’t forget about our newest member Nebraska, which will be strong in 2010-11 and beyond.
Lining up against the Big Ten teams I have:
SEC: 1) Florida 2) Alabama 3) LSU 4) Auburn 5) Arkansas or Georgia. Where is the vast superiority that we keep hearing about? I don’t see it.
Big 12: 1) Texas 2) Oklahoma 3) TCU 4) Texas Tech 5) Texas A&M, that’s it, with all that said the Big 10 definitely got the right team and that team put our conference over the top.
Now the second question: what team do you first see breaking the SEC’s’s run on NC’s? I would love to see MICH do it but we just are not there yet and I would not even bet monopoly money on OSU after their recent embarrassments in the big games. My guess would be Texas or Oklahoma, or a fairy tale for Penn St. or Miami.
Thanks
Gary C.
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Thank you for the question and the conference rundowns.
We would change up the five-team match-ups a little bit, but that is what opinions and discussions are all about.
We are far from sure that one can put Michigan in the top 5 (saying that UM will be back. Michigan, not only to its own fans, but also to the country must receive consideration first from on the field success before the media, coaches, and fans will take Michigan seriously.
Michigan has taken a big hit and when a team only wins three conference games in two years, and misses bowl games in the same time period, there is much work to be done.
We still see the SEC as being superior to the Big Ten, at least at the top of the conference. We do agree that the Big Ten’s depth, the bottom 1/2 of the conference, is equal to any conference, including the SEC.
When a conference wins five out of the past seven National Championships (SEC), with three different teams (LSU, Alabama, and Florida), we believe the above results puts the SEC in a class by itself. The SEC, with last year’s top two teams, Alabama and Florida, possible/probably will have a team in the title game again this year.
Yes, any team can beat any team on any given day, but looking at the rosters of players on teams like Alabama, Florida, etc., it is hard to bad mouth the conference strength.
The funny thing is Les Miles is supposedly (or so national media infer) on the hot seat at LSU because the Tigers have not been able to get in the National Championship game for only a few years, getting beat by fellow SEC teams Florida and Alabama. Coach Miles has averaged ten wins a season since arriving at LSU. Yes, you can throw in 9-4 and 8-5 seasons, but look at who won the National Championships those years, Florida and Alabama. So teams like LSU, Georgia and Auburn have to travel a tougher road than any other conference to get to the big game.
Such fan expectations make college football a dog-eat-dog world. If a favorite team does not win the National Championship, fans perceive the team had a bad year while watching other in-conference teams celebrate with the crystal ball.
Who can beat the SEC for National Championship? Ohio State can, the talent level over the last five years is always in the top five.
Ohio State should have a very good chance this year and probably next year, with Pryor running the offense, to make a national title run. Ohio State’s schedule, while not a cupcake, is not particularly overwhelming. There are enough solid teams on the ledger to catch the Bucks on a down day and beat them, Coach Tressel’s worst fear (see Purdue, circa 2009).
Now to the Big Ten and Ohio State’s past games.
We are not convinced you can call Ohio State’s championship game losses an embarrassment. We think Michigan fans would look at what has happened to UM the last two years and conclude the Wolverine record to be far more embarrassing than losing two games for the National Championship. We would rather be like Ohio State and get to the big game instead of sitting at home watching bowl games on TV for two weeks, and waiting for signing day or spring practice to start. The past two years Michigan fans have had a very long off-season.
Wisconsin and Iowa are two teams that could, if all goes right, compete with Ohio State this season. The primary reason for this statement is that Ohio State plays both games away from C-Bus, and playing at Madison at night guarantees a lot of energy will be flowing through Camp Randall Stadium, especially if both teams are still undefeated in mid-October. Wisconsin will have to play two emotional games in a row when they face OSU and Iowa on back-to-back weekends.
The Iowa/Ohio State game could as well be a big game, especially that late in the year if both teams are still highly ranked and batting for the Big Ten crown. Iowa’s toughest two game swing on paper is when the Hawkeyes play Wisconsin and MSU on back-to-back weekends, but both games are at home.
Michigan State has to be the dark horse for the Big Ten this year and here is why. The Spartans do not play Ohio State this year, so that should, or could, be a huge advantage over Iowa or Wisconsin. The Sparties play Wisconsin at home, while playing at Iowa. What MSU has is a balance of schedule, where the Spartans do not have to play two excellent teams, or emotional games, on consecutive weekends. They recently have played very well against Michigan and always play hard. The Sparties have the mental advantage of beating Michigan the past two seasons. What happens in that game may determine how well MSU will do the rest of the year. If MSU wins the UM game, they could contend for the Big Ten, but if they lose they might return to “same old Sparty status.”
Penn State, already buried by pundits as having lost too much talent from last year (maybe, maybe not), could be a team tough to beat later in the season. The Lions will have some growing pains with a new quarterback and several key players missing from last season’s team, but should have a solid defense, and a good defense can keep a team with a so-so offense in games. Look for the offense to improve down the stretch.
The Big Ten might indeed be catching up to the SEC this year, but we probably all should wait until teams start playing games before saying which conference is better. Until the Big Ten can get other teams to play at a level even with Ohio State (and Alabama and Florida), it will be tough to say that the Big Ten conference is on par with the SEC.
If talking about the future, then the Big Ten is in a good place, but remember Chicago Cubs fans and Cleveland Browns fans always believe the next year is going to be “the year.” Granted, getting Nebraska to the Big Ten is a major plus and will help raise the bar for the Big Ten Conference, but it is still a stretch right now to say the Big Ten is equal to the SEC, until the Big Ten does it on the field.
Going into the season most people are again picking Ohio State to win the conference the Buckeyes have dominated the past five seasons. The Big Ten needs to have 2-3 teams battling and beating Ohio State for the media, coaches, and fans to give the league sufficient credit for comparing Big Ten and SEC football.
The PAC 10, or whatever the league is now called, is a real question mark.
Stanford has a very good offense built around a talented quarterback. Wow, can you believe in such a short time a program like Stanford, with the academic standards of this intellectual Valhalla, has raised the football bar so much since Jim Harbaugh has arrived. He took over a program that most people thought was dead and unlikely to overcome the school’s rigorous academic standards. Coach Harbaugh has recently signed a contract, but with each year of success at Stanford, he becomes an increasingly hot commodity for some elite football program to snatch up.
There are some very good Big 12 teams; Texas and Oklahoma will continue to dominate as Nebraska exits the league. We, as Michigan fans and part of the Big Ten Conference, cannot count on Nebraska as discussion material for parity until 2011.
Winning a National Championship takes some advantageous bounces and breaks as well as talent, especially when one loss is capable of bouncing a team out of national contention.
It is no longer about being the best team in a conference, it is being the best team in the country, and on any given day, with the right breaks, anything can happen. For example, look at the Nebraska vs. Texas Big 12 Championship Game. If Texas does not get a second on the clock back, the Longhorns would have never made it to the big game and likely we would have seen the first non-BCS school get into the National Championship game.
The Big Ten Conference, the media monster that it is, will be pushing for a bright future with the addition of Nebraska, the formation of divisions, and a conference championship game. So let us all hope Michigan can raise its game and get back to where the Wolverines have historically been; competing for Big Ten titles, BCS bowl games and help the Big Ten increase national prominence.
Remember when Michigan fans were tired of 9-3 and 8-4 seasons? How Michigan fans would love to be back in that position going into 2010.
The conference still needs both Michigan and Ohio State, along with at least one other elite team (top 10) to convince football followers that the Big Ten can compete with the SEC.
Written by GBMWolverine Staff
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