What ESPN FPI says about Michigan football and its Big Ten title hopes
The ESPN FPI has never really liked Michigan football that much. There were times last season when the Wolverines were ranked much lower than they should have been.
It's not a perfect ranking system, but it's interesting all the same. The 2024 spring update was just released and Michigan football fans are sure to find it intersting once again.
What ESPN FPI says about Michigan football
The Wolverines are ranked 12th overall according to the ESPN FPI right now. Michigan football was also given a seven-percent chance to win the Big Ten championship. That means programs like Texas Tech, Louisville, Miami, Oklahoma State, and TCU have a better shot of winning their conference than Michigan does the Big Ten.
In some ways that makes sense. It's much easier to win the Big 12 or the ACC than the Big Ten. That's why the Big Ten will get more teams in the playoff than those leagues. It's still weird to think about though.
What's even harder to grasp is that the FPI gave Penn State a 22-percent chance to win the Big Ten. That's nearly three times better than the chance Michigan football has to win the league for a fourth straight season.
The only way this makes any possible sense is the schedule. Penn State has a much easier schedule than Michigan football, Ohio State, or Oregon. Ohio State has to play Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan. The Ducks have games against OSU and Michigan, plus Washington.
Penn State gets a game against Ohio State at home, which won't be easy. But the Nittany Lions avoid Michigan and Oregon. They also travel to USC and Wisconsin but that schedule is a cakewalk compared to the Wolverines.
It also means that Penn State could possibly reach the Big Ten title game without beating Michigan or Ohio State. Assuming Penn State loses to OSU, but wins the rest of its conference games, it would at least be tied with someone for second, because Michigan, OSU, and Oregon all play each other.
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It could come down to a tiebreaker but there is a much easier path for Penn State than Michigan. Yet, U-M has the better team and the better head coach. So we'll see what happens.
12th seems low for Michigan, but the FPI also gave the Wolverines less than a two percent chance of winning the Big Ten in 2021 and we all know what happened.