Michigan football is a three-touchdown favorite for the season opener against Fresno State on Saturday. Fresno State did win nine games last season and could be a threat to crash the playoff party out of the Mountain West.
But, the Bulldogs also have an interim head coach. Yet, they also have one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the Group of Five: Mikey Keene.
Fresno State isn't a power-4 opponent, but in a lot of ways, they are as good as. The Bulldogs always make a bowl and usually win 8-9 games. It won't be a walk in the park for Michigan football and here are three keys to a victory for the Wolverines.
Pressure Mikey Keene
We have been talking up the Michigan football pass rush and I want to see it wreak havoc on Saturday. Keene is a talented quarterback. He's not much of a runner though and that should allow the Michigan defense to tee off.
Of course, they'll need to slow down Malik Sherrod, a running back who had 956 yards last season. If the Wolverines can do that and force Fresno State to be one-dimensional, that should allow Wink Martindale to get creative.
I think we'll see a bunch of different pressure packages under Wink and my feeling is that the Wolverines are going to press the issue.
The best way to defend a stellar quarterback is with a good pass rush and Michigan football should be able to generate pressure with just the front four.
Establish the run
Running the ball well is a no-brainer for Michigan football, except the Wolveriners will get a taste on Saturday of how teams will try to defend them.
Last season, even with a top-10 pick at quarterback, teams were stuffing the box. I think we'll see teams be even more aggressve about it in 2024, starting with the Bulldogs.
Fresno State allowed 4.3 yards per attempt last season. So the Bulldogs shouldn't offer too much resistance. It's a test I'd like to see the offensive line pass.
We saw even in the early games last season that Michigan football struggled to run the ball and whether it's Alex Orji or Davis Warren, that makes the job tougher on the quarterback.
The offensive line still has some moving pieces and the competition there could bleed into Saturday, just like it could at quarterback.
But if the offensive line can impose its will on the Bulldogs and if Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings get going, it's hard to see Fresno State having a chance.
If Michigan runs the ball well, it will win, easily.
Don't lose the turnover battle
As a 21-point favorite, Michigan football could probably afford to lose the turnover battle, but not all turnovers are created equally.
Michigan has to avoid the really bad turnovers that lead directly to points. That's enough to let a team like Fresno State hang around on the road.
Michigan football's quarterback will also be making his first career start. That's true whether it's Alex Orji or Davis Warren. There's going to be some jitters. It might take a while for the game to "slow down" and there's a chance that Michigan has a turnover or two at the quarterback position.
That's what you want to avoid and whoever is playing quarterback, taking care of the ball is job No. 1. The defense should be elite and I believe the running game will be too.
Those two things can win Michigan football a lot of games this season. But they have to execute in the simple areas and that means taking care of the ball, being solid in the kicking game, etc.
I don't have any reason to doubt Michigan at all. Sherrone Moore is going to be an elite head coach. The last two Michigan starting quarterbacks were elite at protecting the ball and it remains to be seen if Warren and Orji are made of that same ilk.