Calculating Michigan football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

The 2024 college football season is going to be the first that features the 12-team playoff. As far as Michigan footballfourth is concerned, that provides a great opportunity to get back to the College Football Playoff for the fouth consecutive season.

The Wolverines have won the past three Big Ten championships, but with a loaded Big Ten that now includes Oregon, USC, Washington, and UCLA, that will be even more difficult.

Michigan football also has one of the toughest schedules in the country, a new head coach, and also has to replace a program-record 13 draft picks.

Yet, the 12-team playoff gives Michigan football a little margin for error. However, there still isn't much according to Kelley Ford, who puts together ratings and power rankings for college football.

The analyst put together at-large wins needed for each college football team to be in contention for an at-large berth for the 2024 College Football Playoff and the Wolverines' win total needed is interesting.

Ford's analysis concludes that Michigan football would need 10 wins this season to be a contender for the College Football Playoff. So are there 10 wins on the Wolverines' schedule?

Where will the 10 wins for Michigan football come from in 2024?

Five games will likely define the 2024 season for Michigan football: Texas, Oregon, USC, at Washington, and at Ohio State. The Wolverines also face Fresno State, Arkansas State, Minnesota, Illinois (on the road), Michigan State, Indiana (on the road), and Northwestern (all should be wins).

Michigan football has eight home games. If the Wolverines win all those games and split the four road games, they will make the College Football Playoff. But those home games include Oregon and Texas.

As long as the Wolverines split those two games and split the road games against Washington and Ohio State, plus beat USC at home, Michigan football will easily be a playoff team.