Breaking down Michigan football QB Davis Warren against Fresno State

I'll be honest, I'm a Davis Warren fan. Not just because he's the starting quarterback for my favorite team, but also because he's got the best story in all of college football. Diagnosed with Leukemia in high school he overcame incredible odds to just play football again. Now he's bringing kids from Ann Arbor's Motts Children's Hospital to practice, serving as a role model and giving hope to many who need it.

When he walked on for Michigan football nobody expected him to become the starting quarterback one day. And yet here we are, with Warren once again beating the odds.

As a Michigan football fan, or as a college football fan in general, it's impossible not to root for him. He's the ultimate underdog who is now starting for the winningest team in college football history.

I think that there is a lot to like from his performance on Saturday, and expectedly, some things that he's going to have to improve throughout the season. Let's start with what he did well.

Leading the Offense

Warren seems to have a natural leadership ability to him. When talking in fall camp about what he would need to see from someone to earn the starting job, quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell listed leadership as the first thing. When talking to the media just this week head coach Sherrone Moore talked about how Davis Warren has consistently shown great understanding of the offense and leadership ability.

Warren made adjustments at the line of scrimmage, avoided delay-of-game penalties, and showed command of the huddle. That's huge to see that in a player making their first start at the most demanding position in sports. He also showed toughness during the game.

One of my favorite throws was one he made on Michigan's first drive of the second half. On a second and 10 Michigan football comes out in an empty set with no one in the backfield. Fresno State rushed two cornerbacks leaving two free rushers coming right at Warren when the ball was snapped. Warren stands in the pocket and completes a pass to Colston Loveland taking a big hit in the process. Toughness is such an underrated quality in quarterbacks that doesn't get talked about enough. If this is a sign of how Warren plays going forward Michigan fans should be really encouraged.

Warren also did a great job of avoiding mistakes in this game. He only had one turnover worthy throw and really didn't put the ball into bad positions very often. Ironically it was this caution that caused him to throw his only turnover of the game. But we'll get to that in a second.

What He Needs to Improve

I want to be clear that Warren had a solid game for a first time starter. The mistakes we saw are fixable and he has a ton of talent. These are simply the things that are going to allow him to elevate this Michigan football offense to what we've grown used to the last few years.

I also think though that Warren will tell you that Saturday was not his best performance. There are two big things that I noticed that he needs to clean up. First, he struggled to read the defense post-snap. A great example of this was on a play early in the third quarter. After a holding penalty, Michigan football comes to the line with a 2nd and 17 at the Fresno State 41 yard line.

Michigan football lines up in a spread formation with three receivers to one side of the field. They're going to run a slot fade concept out of this set. Fresno State shows Cover 1 pre-snap. If you're lost all you need to know is that based on what play Michigan is running and how Fresno State lines up Davis Warren is expecting to throw the ball deep to Sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan running a slot fade route.

The problem is that the defense shifts as the ball is snapped into a cover 3 look, which leads to them covering Morgan and leaving Youngstown State Transfer CJ Charleston wide open. Warren doesn't recognize this however and overthrows Morgan for an incompletion instead of getting the ball to CJ Charleston. Michigan would have to settle for a long field goal on the drive.

This was emblematic of what we saw all night from Warren. He wasn't making adjustments post-snap and struggled to move through his reads -- often locking onto his first read instead of looking for his second and third option on the play. Keep in mind this was his first start and honestly exactly what you'd expect given that. This is a tough offense for a quarterback and everyone should expect it to take some time for Warren to settle in and be comfortable running it.

The Interception

The other thing that Warren struggled with was setting his feet on his throws. Let's go back to the interception. Michigan football was running a common play-action passing concept known as Yankee. You'll see this from a lot of pro-style offenses and especially in the NFL. Essentially, you have one receiver running a deep post to clear out the coverage and another running a deep over route into the vacated area of the field. The video below explains the play a little more in-depth. Fresno State is running a quarters coverage on defense.

Again, if you're lost, all you need to know is that Davis Warren makes a great read to see that his deep receiver Fredrick Moore is open and throws it to him for what should have been a touchdown.

Everyone who watched the play live probably said the ball was under thrown. In reality, the ball was thrown late. When Warren reaches the top of his drop back and sees Moore open but he hesitates for just a fraction of a second. He takes what's called a hitch step instead of immediately setting his feet and throwing.

The result, the extra fraction of a second allows the defense to catch back up to Moore and intercept the ball. It was Warren's hesitation to make sure that his receiver was open that led to him throwing the interception. To be fair, Fredrick Moore should have done a better job of coming back to the ball to break up the pass. But it's a tiny mistake that caused the difference between a touchdown and an interception.

This was a theme we saw all night, Warren didn't really set his feet when he threw which messed up his timing and caused him to get the ball to receivers just a little bit late.

While it doesn't seem like a big deal, this hesitation limits the receiver's ability to run for yards after the catch and often leads to interceptions. When fans talk about wanting the Michigan offense to be more explosive in the passing game, it's hitting receivers in time that creates explosive plays. We saw this problem a lot from JJ McCarthy in 2022 and it is very fixable, it just takes time. There are NFL quarterbacks who struggle with this. Warren will improve, in the spring game Warren actually did a better job of this than he did on Saturday.

Reasons to Feel Optimistic

I think that both of these mistakes come down to Davis Warren just needing to get some experience and start playing with a little more confidence. He didn't seem to trust himself, he hesitated on throws and waited to see guys open instead of anticipating receivers coming open. This is all completely understandable for someone making their first start.

With what he showed, Michigan football will still be really good this season. These are simply the things that are going to take him from reliably good to a JJ McCarthy-type season that we saw a year ago.

I really expect Warren to step up and grow a lot this season. He has the tools, he just needs the experience and the confidence. I don't know how much he'll improve against Texas this week, but I think he's a better quarterback than he showed on Saturday.

It's just really hard to say how much better. But let's be honest, if he can improve week to week and Michigan beats Ohio State for a fourth straight year in November, will anyone really care or even remember the Texas game by then? I'd hesitate to call this year a rebuilding year because this roster is still really good, but this team has some room to improve to get back to the College Football Playoff and have a shot at defending their national championship from a year ago.