The oddsmakers have doubted Michigan football numerous times in the past three years and going into the 2024 season, most of them have Oregon or Ohio State winning the Big Ten title.
That's understandable. Michigan football lost 10 starters on offense, some elite players on defense, and the best head coach the program has ever had, as well as the best head coach in college football. Full stop.
I know some people won't agree with that sentiment, but I don't believe Kirby Smart could have won a national title at Michigan. Maybe Nick Saban, but Smart has never known anything but top-5 recruiting classes and I don't know if he could win without that.
Jim Harbaugh can and did. He did what most deemed impossible in this new era. I had given up on Michigan football ever winning a national championship again. I didn't think anything beyond a Big Ten title was possible.
But here we are getting ready to open the 2024 season with Michigan as the defending national champions. I feel confident that this team can make the 12-team playoff. But what about winning another Big Ten title?
Here are three reasons why it's not that far fetched.
An elite defense
They say defense wins championships for a reason, because it does. That's especially true in college football. Just look at the last three national champions. They have each been definied by defense.
You need to score points to be able to win. Running the ball is extremely important -- something else Michigan football does as well as anyone -- but if you can stop your opponents the way Michigan can, you can win a lot of games, even with a mediocre quarterback.
I'm not saying Michigan has a mediocre quarterback. Alex Orji could be a bust. He could also be a star. We just don't know, but if this defense is as good as we all expect it to be, Orji won't need to be a superstar to lead Michigan to another Big Ten title.
The fact that the Wolverines won a Big Ten championship with Cade McNamara is evidence of that and with possibly four first-round picks on this defense, this will be a championship-level unit.
The Smash mentality
You need elite quarterback play to win the national championship, but I'm not sure that's required to win the Big Ten.
I respect Will Howard, but even Denzel Burke said he needs to see more. The kid is above average at best and if he wasn't he would be starting for Kansas State this season, not Avery Johnson.
Howard is surrounded by tons of talent, on both sides of the ball. But will the Buckeyes actually run the ball enough this season? They didn't the past two years and that's why Ryan Day hired Chip Kelly.
Michigan doesn't have any identity crisis. Sherrone Moore said he wants Michigan football to play violently to the point of making teams tap out. Ohio State did in 2021 and 2022. Last season was a fight to the end, but Michigan football was better when it needed to be.
That's all about mental toughness. The culture became elite under Harbaugh and it hasn't changed under Moore, who was a huge part of instilling that culture.
Michigan football will have an elite running game and there might not be a more physical team in all of college football. Texas and Oregon think they know, but they don't. Oregon couldn't stop Washington and Michigan made them look like Michael Penix was still playing for Indiana.
Texas beat Alabama but Michigan bullied Alabama and if the kicking game wasn't a disaster, the Wolverines win the Rose Bowl by two touchdowns.
Yes, some of those players are gone, but the mindset remains and there is more than enough talent to keep being the bully. That's not to say Oregon and Texas can't beat Michigan, they can, but they better be ready for a street fight.
A favorable schedule
The Michigan football schedule is tough. No question about it, but it's also favorable in the sense that some of the most important and difficult games in the Big House.
Texas doesn't matter for the Big Ten championship. The playoff? Sure. But it has no impact on the Big Ten title race.
The Wolverines play Oregon and Ohio State in November. Oregon is at home and the only other daunting road game is at Washington. If U-M can hold serve at home, and win in Seattle, it won't even need to win in Columbus.
If both teams were unbeaten, at least in the Big Ten, they would likely be guaranteed to play again the next week. So as I laid out in bold predictions for the season, Ohio State could beat Michigan, but then have to beat them again in Indy for the Big Ten title the next week.
If that's the scenario, I like the Wolverines chances. Just saying.