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One key stat will decide Michigan's Big Ten semifinal against Wisconsin

If Michigan basketball is going to beat Wisconsin, it needs to be better in this key stat against the Badgers.
Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players and coaches after 90-80 win over Michigan State at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, March 8, 2026.
Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players and coaches after 90-80 win over Michigan State at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, March 8, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan basketball lost one game during the Big Ten season, and on Saturday, the Wolverines will get a chance to right that wrong against Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinals.

The Badgers did away with Illinois in overtime on Friday. They are 15-4 in their last 19 games, and have been one of the best offensive teams in college basketball.

Wisconsin was struggling until it beat Michigan. Then, it followed that up with wins over Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue,

Michigan basketball fans will remember the 3-point loss in Ann Arbor well. Wisconsin shot a bunch of 3-pointers as they always do and connected on 15 to knock off previously unbeaten Michigan.

Looking ahead to Saturday's Big Ten semifinal game, the 3-point shot, whether Wisconsin makes or misses, will determine the outcome.

3-point shooting will be determing factor in Michigan vs Wisconsin

According to UMHoops.com, the Badgers, who took 62 percent of their shots from 3-point range against Illinois, are 21-2 this season when they shoot better than 33.3 percent from deep. When the Badgers are held below 33.3 percent, their record dips to 3-7.

That's a massive difference, but one the Wolverines surely understand. Perhaps they are not familiar with that specific statistic. However, after allowing 15 3-pointers in the first matchup, it's clear that 3-point defense, as well as on-the-ball defense will be critical.

Wisconsin loves to set ball screens for its guards, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. They are two of the best creators in the Big Ten. They also do stellar job of getting pentration and spraying the ball out to shooters.

Limiting 3-point attempts and shots will be key to victory. If Michigan does that, it should end up in the Big Ten tournament championship for the second year in a row.

UCLA defeated Michigan State, and Purdue upset Nebraska on the other side of the bracket. The winner of the Michigan-Wisconsin game will play either UCLA or Purdue on Sunday in the Big Ten championship game.

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