With a month left in the regular season, this weekend’s showdown between Michigan and Michigan State is about jockeying for position. First is to see who can raise a regular-season championship banner in already crowded rafters. Second is seeding for the single-elimination Big Ten tournament, where the No. 1 seed plays No. 6, and so on. In this top-heavy league, this could mean facing a poor-performing Ohio State or Notre Dame, or a national contender in Penn State or Wisconsin.
For the NCAA tournament, also single elimination, it’s about avoiding powerhouses like North Dakota, Western Michigan, and Denver. Instead, facing weaker east coast teams like Providence, Quinnipiac, and Boston College, is much preferred. Like all one and done tournaments, a weird bounce or deflection can undo a great season. Facing lower competition that can be dominated is preferred.
Offense: Blue
Michigan hockey has the nation's top offense with 4.81 goals per game and a 2.65 scoring margin. Michigan State is 7th in goals and 3rd in margin. Michigan’s scoring depth is the advantage here. The duo of sophomores Will Horcoff and Michael Hage has had a quiet January, but juniors Jayden Perron and Nick Moldenhauer, senior Josh Eernisse, and “Mr. Everywhere” freshman Adam Valentini have picked up the scoring load and don't appear to be slacking. Horcoff getting a goal in the first minute of last week’s first game is heartening.
Defense: Green
Goal prevention is numero uno for Michigan State, allowing only 21 goals in the last 10 games. Their defensive depth has been strong all season and could be the difference. They have size in each pairing, particularly with 6’ 4" sophomore Colin Ralph, 6’ 2” junior Maxim Strbak. Michigan’s defense isn’t as deep nor large but is more mobile and strong with the puck. This is where Michigan State has the advantage this weekend, so Michigan needs to limit shots on goal, be strong on the boards, and first to loose pucks.
Special Teams: Blue
It will be physical, and staying out of the penalty box is crucial because this rivalry can become penalty-heavy. Michigan’s power play percentage is .300 (3rd in the nation) and has scored 30 goals (2nd behind Minn-Duluth’s 32). Michigan State is .240 (14th) and 18. The penalty kill has Michigan State at .822 with 18 goals given up, while Michigan hockey is at .795 and also 18. In the whistle-happy Big Ten, both teams average 18 minutes in penalties per game.
The combination of having a top power play and being even at penalty kill, gives Michigan the edge. Michigan State refers to themselves as blue-collar and gritty, with physical play as their identity. If they try to live up to that this weekend, they will need to be disciplined because Michigan will make them pay.
Goaltending: Green
Even if Michigan’s injured freshman goaltender Jack Ivonkovic were healthy, Michigan State would have the advantage with junior Trey Augustine. Comparing numbers won’t help, given that Michigan’s starter, freshman Stephen Peck, has played only four and a half games this season, while Augustine made a name for himself as a freshman and is having the season of his career.
Overall, Michigan’s defense played well in the previous games, and this has to continue because Stephen Peck is an unknown quantity in a big weekend. Peck is no Ivankovic, which is clear. He’s not bad, just untested.