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Final odds and a prediction for Michigan vs. UConn in the national title game

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) and forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) react during the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) and forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) react during the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Less than 48 hours after blowing out Arizona in the Final Four, Michigan will play UConn for the national championship.

Tip-off time is set for 8:50 PM EST. TBS will have the broadcast once again. It will be essentially the same start time for the Wolverines, minus an hour.

Michigan basketball is seeking its first national championship since 1989, and only the second in program history. UConn is aiming for its seventh title, and its seventh straight win in the national championship game.

Final odds favor Michigan basketball to cut down the nets

The Wolverines are 7.5-point favorites, according to Vegas oddmakers. That might seem steep, but they have won every NCAA Tournament game by double-digits, becoming the first team to do that, and score at least 90 points in their first five NCAA Tournament wins. The over/under is 144.7, and the moneyline is +240 for UConn and -298 for Michigan basketball.

The Huskies have never lost in the title game. Michigan has lost four in a row. The Wolverines have been dominant, though. They are ranked No. 1 in the Kenpom. That is compared to No. 9 for UConn.

There is NBA talent on both sides. Michigan likely has the edge there with Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, and Trey McKenney. UConn has former Michigan big man Tarris Reed, who has developed into a 14.8-point-per-game scorer. He's 6-foot-10, grabs 8.8 rebounds per game, and led the Big East in field goal percentage (61.7). He doesn't attempt 3-pointers, though.

Alex Karaban is the veteran leader. He played on the last two championship teams. He is a 6-foot-8 stretch four who could cause problems. He takes half of his shots from the perimeter and shoots 37.8 percent. Karaban is UConn's second-best offensive rebounder, too, with 1.8 per game. Reed pulls down 3.3.

The Huskies take about 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They love screens and cuts. Michigan needs to make them play one-on-one as much as possible. That was the fate of Arizona, and it didn't work out well.

Mara has to win the matchup with Reed. If Michigan could get him into foul trouble, that would be a major win. Silas Demary is a 6-foot-5 guard who dishes out six assists per game and is a stellar on-ball defender. Solo Ball is another top-notch guard, but he missed practice.

All four of those players average in double figures. Then, there is Braylon Mullins, who is making 2.2 3-pointers per game at a 33.7 percent clip. The former five-star recruit has caught fire, but is only shooting 29 percent for the tournament, which includes a 0-for-8 game. If you take out the first round, he's shooting 39 percent, though.

Michigan will need to account for all of them. How it defends the 3-point line and how it rebounds the ball will be vital. Saturday was the fourth time that the Wolverines shot at least 44 percent from 3-point range in this tournament, while finishing at least 10 in all five wins.

They need to keep that trend going on Monday night. If they do, they will be cutting down the nets for the first time in 37 years. The frontcourt will also be too much for the Huskies to handle, and Elliot Cadeau has another big night with the ball in his hands. Yaxel Lendeborg is expected to play. What his impact will be remains to be seen, but if he can just hit shots, defend, and rebound, the Wolverines will be just fine.

Cadeau was brilliant against Arizona. If he can play that way for one more game, this Michigan basketball team will win the national championship.

Prediction: Michigan 75, UConn 69.

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