Breaking down Michigan's draw in loaded Big Ten women's basketball tournament

The Michigan women’s basketball team (15-3 in conference) ended up tied for second to Iowa (15-3) behind first place UCLA (18-0), the regular season champion. They are the third seed because Iowa beat them head-to-head. Their first tournament game is on the evening of Friday, March 7th, after Iowa’s game concludes. They’ll play the winner of the second-round game between Maryland and the winner of the Oregon/Purdue game. The fourth seed is Minnesota.

Breakdown of the Top Seeds

Top-seeded UCLA faces the winner of the Washington v USC game. In previous meetings against UCLA, Washington lost on 2/19 by 15 points, and USC was stomped by a combined winning margin of 75 points in their two meetings. UCLA’s semifinal opponent will probably be the winner of the Minnesota v Ohio St. game. It’s unlikely that either team will put up much of a fight, though. UCLA should get to the final game on Sunday comfortably.

Second-seeded Iowa will probably face Michigan St. in their first game, given Michigan St.’s opponents have ended the season on losing streaks, Illinois lost their last two (one of which was to Iowa 82-78) and Wisconsin their last nine. Iowa played Michigan St. on 1/18 and cruised to victory, leading for over three periods. Look for Iowa to cruise to the semifinal game.

Fourth-seeded Minnesota should defeat whomever they face in the quarters, which would be Ohio St., Nebraska, or Indiana, all of whom they beat by at least 13 points. But their tournament ends in the semis.

Michigan’s Potential Quarterfinal Opponents

Michigan women's basketball could face Maryland, Oregon, or Purdue. The Wolverines played Maryland last Friday, 2/28, and beat them by 18, and not much will change when they face them on Friday, 3/6. However, it’s been 12 weeks since Michigan played Purdue (12/7), where Michigan scored its only 100-point game. In that game, five players scored in double figures, and all 12 players who got minutes scored. The double-overtime victory over Oregon was also back in December (12/29) in that not-so-great trip to the Pacific Northwest. Michigan has exorcised whatever juju befell them out there, so they should cruise to the semis.

Prognostications

Shockingly, the major online betting sites don’t have lines on the Big Ten women’s tournament, although one of them takes bets on the ACC, Big 12, and SEC. So this article’s writer will take a stab at the first-round games that will be played tomorrow, 3/3. If said writer fails miserably, don’t expect a follow up one. The predictions are straight up, given that there aren’t any betting lines.

Game 1: #12 Nebraska vs. #13 Indiana (3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock)

The pick is Indiana because of senior Shay Ciezki, a true gunner, and the seventh leading scorer in the country, averaging 23.2. The last time these two teams met, Ciezki lit Nebraska up for 31 on 13-21 shooting. Given it’s her final Big Ten tournament and that Indiana is unlikely to make the tournament, Ciezki will be shooting from the word “go.”

Game 2: #10 Illinois vs. #15 Wisconsin (25 minutes following Game 1 on Peacock)

The pick is Illinois because Wisconsin is on a brutal nine-game losing streak, and the last time they met on 2/11, Illinois won 92-60. 

Game 3: #11 Oregon vs. #14 Purdue (25 minutes following Game 2 on Peacock)

The pick is Oregon. The two played last week at Mackey Arena and Oregon led comfortably most of the way due to Purdue's 21 turnovers, of which Oregon turned into 31 points. Oregon lost a nailbiter yesterday, 3/1, to rival Washington 70-69. They’re salty about it and look to avenge that loss.