Advanced stats make Michigan's loss to Iowa even more difficult to stomach

Two days after, it's still hard to believe that the Iowa Hawkeyes left the Big House with a 20-19 victory on Saturday.

It felt like Michigan football invented ways to lose the game. At the very least, it was a comedy of errors, such as committing a personal foul penalty to wipe away a 4th-and-12, leaping on a 4th-and-inches, throwing an interception in the red zone, and allowing Iowa to drive 91 yards in two minutes.

That's hard to fathom right there. But when you see how lopsided the statistics were, and how likely Michigan football was to win the game based on that, it makes the final result even more difficult to stomach for Wolverine fans.

Bill Radjewski of CollegeFootballData.com, posted on Saturday that Iowa had a 19-percent postgame win expectancy against the Wolverines in the Big Ten opener. According to Radjewski, "Michigan statistically dominated most advanced stats categories, including a 45% to 27% success rate advantage."

Michigan football dominated Iowa but still lost

Iowa is Iowa. The Hawkeyes are one of the best teams in college football at not beating themselves. Saturday was one of the greatest examples you will ever see.

Iowa was outstanding on special teams. They had multiple punts downed inside the five and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. If that doesn't happen, the Hawkeyes aren't even in the game in the fourth quarter to pull off a miracle ending.

Michigan also could have made sure that Iowa wasn't in range to pull off the shocking victory if it had been able to execute in the red zone.

Michigan has three trips in scoring range that ended up with just three points. Underwood threw an interception. On the rewatch it seems clear Underwood was throwing a back-shoulder fade to Marsh, who was running a different route, something Kyle Whittingham confirmed Monday.

That's why the interception looked like it did. Underwood also tried to leap for a first down on a 4th-and-short instead of going low on the QB sneak. I would rather Michigan run the same play it used each time it was pinned deep. Iowa knew it was running then and couldn't stop it.

The Wolverines were held to a field goal on another drive. If Michigan just kicks three field goals there, it wins the game.

Hinsight is 20/20, but the more you look into this game, the harder it is to understand how in the hell Iowa won.

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