When it comes to Michigan vs. Michigan State, it feels like anything can and will happen.
Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore was right when he said the "records do not matter." They don't. Not in this game.
However, after four consecutive losses, this looks like a bad Michigan State team. Usually, Michigan football doesn't lose to bad Spartan teams. Average or good MSU squads? Yes.
But it's hard to say this an average team. It's only Power-4 win was over Boston College, a win that hasn't aged well at all.
The defense has been bad, yet Michigan State's offense hasn't been much better. The Spartans are 122nd in scoring defense (32.7 allowed) and 78th in points per game (27.1). Michigan State doesn't run the ball well. It doesn't stop the run, and while the Spartans have 13 sacks, five of those were against Nebraska, so in six other games, they have just eight sacks.
Michigan football isn't perfect. It ranks 70th in points per game (28.7). That average dips even further on the road as Michigan has scored 18.6 per game on the road. Michigan has struggled on the plus side of the field, including last week, when three possessions inside the Washington 40 came up without points.
That can't keep happening. The trash talk has been tame all week for this rivalry, but it will be an intense battle, as always, and here are five predictions for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
Michigan State will take an early lead
Maybe the Spartans will win the toss and score on their opening drive as Wisconsin did. USC did it, too, along with Oklahoma. Nebraska was in position to score but passed on a field goal and failed to convert a fourth-and-two.
For whatever reason, this Michigan defense hasn't been great on the first series. Washington advanced near midfield last week before the defense stood up.
Aidan Chiles is a talented quarterback. He struggles under pressure, but he can run. He's also got a big arm. Nick Marsh is a dude. Maybe there will be a long touchdown early or an explosive play that leads to a field goal, but Michigan State will make things uncomfortable early.
Don't be surprised at all if this is a one-score game at half.
Bryce Underwood will have his best road game
The Spartans are going to stack the box. Michigan has been conservative with Bryce Underwood on the road and I'd make the freshman quarterback prove he's ready to deliver in that enviornment.
The good news for Michigan fans is that the Wolverines are actually willing to do something besides run straight into a stacked box. Bryce has become an RPO maestro. That's a great way to alleviate a stacked box, and it has the added bonus of being a really comfortable play for Underwood.
It's something he did a lot in high school. The RPO was rarely part of the offense before, and it shows how Sherrone has handed over the keys to Chip Lindsey.
Bryce is completing just 51.4 percent of his passes on the road for an average of 150 yards. He's got three touchdowns (one rushing) and one interception. Michigan football has only allowed him to attempt an average of 23 passes on the road. Against Oklahoma and Nebraska, he didn't throw downfield much.
That won't be the case on Saturday. The offensive line should able to protect him. Andrew Marsh has emerged. There is a good chance Marlin Klein will be back, so his three best weapons can all be on the field, really for the first time.
Michigan has started to trust him more as a drop-back passer. That evolution should continue this week. Underwood will throw for over 200 yards and will account for multiple touchdowns, but wil have another clean game. He's only had three turnovers all season and zero multi-turnover games.
Justice Haynes hits a home run
This prediction is predicated on Justice Haynes being able to play. He's been practicing this week, which feels like a strong indication. We won't know until Saturday, though.
Jordan Marshall was brilliant in Haynes' absence. He probably missed a cut or two, but who cares? Marshall was pushing the pile. He was fighting for yards, and he was decisive. He should get around 10-12 carries even if Haynes is in the lineup.
We saw Michigan dominate Nebraska on the road running the ball. The Spartans allowed 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Spartans gave up 289 rushing yards to USC. UCLA also went over 200.
It would be nice to see Bryce involved more in the running game but he might not need to be, and if Haynes is healthy enough to play, I say he's healthy enough to hit a 50-yard run (at least).
Michigan as a team will rush for over 200.
Getting tricky
One thing Michigan has struggled with this season are trick plays. The Wolverines had the perfect call on against Nebraska, except Donaven McCulley probably should have been throwing the ball instead of Semaj Morgan.
That play was reversed last week against Washington. McCulley threw the ball to Morgan, yet it was nearly intercepted. Maybe it's too big of a tell that McCulley was a former wide receiver.
When he was the offensive coordinator, Sherrone Moore had a great feel for the trick play, and he still does. Maybe the Wolverines will get back to running backs throwing the ball. It could be a play like the Donovan Edwards pass last year against Michigan State, although a flea-flicker could be on the table, too.
A reserve counts, I guess, and Michigan has executed them. Yet, they will finally hit an explosive play on a trick play this week.
Aidan Chiles will feel the heat
Michigan State doesn't run the ball well. Not to pick on Nebraska again, but the Huskers are allowing 201 rushing yards per game to Power-4 opponents. Yet, the Spartans were the only team held under 100 rushing yards.
So it's hard to see Michigan State finding success against a Michigan defense that's allowing 92.7 yards per game and just 3.0 yards per carry, despite giving up 224 rushing yards to USC.
Mahki Frazier, the Michigan State running back has averaged less than four yards a carry four times in seven games. Last week he got one yard on seven attempts against Indiana. He does have five games with at least 58 rushing yards, but it feels like Michigan will stuff the run.
That will allow the defensive line to tee off on a Michigan State offense that allows 2.71 sacks per game (tied for 112th in FBS). Michigan should get 4-5 sacks.
Score prediction: Michigan 34, Michigan State 17
Michigan State will keep its close for a half but the Wolverines will pull away in the second half as Bryce Underwood continues to grow as a quarterback.