After notching consecutive wins over Michigan State and Washington, the Michigan football team will look to make it three wins in a row over Purdue.
Underwhelming “D” against a competent “O”
You only have to visit a couple of fancy stats websites to figure out that Purdue’s defense is not very good. The reason is not scheme or coaching, but the personnel are either not very good Big Ten transfers or up-transfers struggling with the higher level. First-year head coach Barry Odom fabricated this defense via the portal, and at times, these new Boilermakers hold their own. Unfortunately, "at times" means "not often enough." But when you look at the bench for reinforcements, it's even more grim. Expect moments of competency from their conservative base 4-2-5, but these will be few and far between.
Those same sites have Michigan’s offense firmly in the middle of the Big Ten for total offense, not very good, but good enough. Personnel is the reason here too: freshman QB, injuries have shuffled the line, same with the tight ends, and the receivers are just guys after senior Donaven McCulley. The running game is solid to almost-dominant. Senior Justice Haynes has been dinged up, and giving him rest going into a bye week is probably the move. Seems like power running behind senior captain Max Bredeson is also probably the move.
Time of possession
Speaking of power running, sophomore power back Jordan Marshall should be the reason for the time of possession to favor Michigan football. Churning yards against heavy boxes is Marshall’s calling card, and by the middle of the game, the already-thin Purdue defensive line will be making contact with him a couple of yards downfield. Marshall’s momentum will tack on another five yards, meaning a fresh play clock while the game clock runs on.
Teamrankings.com ranks Purdue #129 out of 136 for time of possession. Cfbstats.com has them dead last in the Big Ten. Which is ominous for the aforementioned tired defense. The Purdue "O" is a fast-tempo team, snapping the ball with 15-25 on the play clock, so they can run as many plays as possible, improving the chances of a defensive bust and a big play. But what if the defense is solid and not giving up first downs? The “D” runs back on the field after just catching their collective breath and only one cup of liquid. Hey, Offensive Coordinator Josh Henson, maybe wind the clock down to 10 seconds before snapping? The defense will see it as most kind.
“Home Bryce”
The Bryce Hype is real. Yet the five-star freshman is still a freshman QB, and the Michigan coaching staff has kept his plate “not full” and his health paramount.
No risk will bring rewards in the next two years. But the phenomenon called “Home Bryce” is real. Strength of opponent caveats apply, but home wins against Wisconsin and Washington totaled 537 Bryce yards, as opposed to an away total versus USC and Michigan State of 315.
There’s hope for those sitting in the chilly Ann Arbor night that Home Bryce will sling it downfield against a not very good secondary while sitting comfortably in the pocket against a not very good pass rush. Doing so will turn the sitting into jumping and high-fiving, which will warm them with a glimpse into what might be.