3 keys and prediction for Michigan basketball against McNeese State

Dec 21, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; University of Michigan head coach Dusty May looks on from the sidelines during the first half against the La Salle Explorers at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images
Dec 21, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; University of Michigan head coach Dusty May looks on from the sidelines during the first half against the La Salle Explorers at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images | Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

The Michigan basketball team, ranked second in the AP Poll and first in the Coaches Poll, will have another opportunity against a top-100 team in the Kenpom rankings in McNeese State, which will invade the Crisler Center on Monday night (7 PM EST, BTN+).

The Cowboys no longer have Will Wade. He's now the head coach at North Carolina State, but McNeese State still boasts a talented roster with multiple top-100 recruits, led by Bill Armstrong, and is off to a 10-2 start.

Larry Johnson, a 6-foot-4 guard averaging 16.6 points per game, is one example. He's a former top-100 recruit who leads the Southland Conference with a 67.3 2-point field-goal percentage.

McNeese State is tremendous at the rim, outshooting opponents 65 percent to 48 percent. They have also forced turnovers on 25.8 percent of their defensive possessions, which, according to UMHoops, is the best turnover rate in college basketball.

This could be a pesky game for Michigan, or even a trap game. Here are three keys and a prediction.

Take care of the ball

The Cowboys love to pressure the ball. They will use a full-court press, especially on made baskets, and it will be a good challenge for the Wolverines, who have struggled with turnovers at times this season.

McNeese State forces 18.3 per game, which is the third-most in college basketball. The Cowboys are third in steals per game (11,4) and 63rd in blocks per game (4.4).

Michigan basketball turns the ball over 12.5 times per game (214th). That's still a weakness, and it's one that McNeese State will try to exploit.

Win at the rim

McNeese State doesn't have any 7-footers, so that might create some issues, but the Cowboys are great at getting to the rim and finishing. They are 33rd nationally in 2-point percentage (59.5) and are 17th in 2-point percentage defense (43.7).

Michigan is the third-best 2-point team in college basketball (64.1), and it has the best 2-point percentage defense in the sport (38.6). That should negate what McNeese State does on offense.

The Cowboys haven't played a team like Michigan. It has the best rim protection in college basketball, and if that holds up, the Wolverines will win.

Take it serious

A post-Christmas buy game is the perfect recipe for a trap game. McNeese State is ranked 64th overall in the Kenpom rankings. This is a team with a good chance of being in the NCAA tournament again.

The Wolverines have been exceptional with their focus this season. They haven't played down to their competition, and have rarely take their foot off the gas.

If that mentality holds, Michigan should cruise to victory, but McNeese State is actually a higher-ranked opponent, in the Kenpom rankings, than some Big Ten foes.

So if Michigan takes the Cowboys lightly, it could spell trouble.

Prediction: Michigan 98 (-24.5), McNeese State 71

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