Michigan basketball avoided disaster on Monday against Penn State thanks to the effort of Trey Donaldson.
If the Wolverines had lost that game, the season could have been on the brink. Instead, Michigan basketball is 7-2. The Wolverines are still in the hunt for the Big Ten title, although it might be tough to catch Michigan State.
Michigan basketball is 15-5. The Wolverines are 21st according to the Kenpom rankings. Rutgers is 70th (73rd in NET rankings) but they have recent road wins over Northwestern and Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights were competitive in a game against Michigan State at home recently and this won't be easy.
The Scarlet Knights have the Big Ten's leading scorer in Ace Bailey, a 6-foot-10 freshman who scores 20.7 points per game. He shoots 41 percent from 3-point range, averages 1.4 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 2.1 turnovers.
He'll be an interesting matchup for Michigan basketball. Rutgers also has Dylan Harper, another top-five prospect and future lottery pick. He's scoring 17 points per game. No one else on the roster averages in double figures.
Rutgers is 14th in points allowed per game during conference play. They also rank 17th in 2-point percentage defense (46.6) and 11th in 3-point defense (34.6 percent allowed). The Scarlet Knights are last in Big Ten games in assists and last in allowing them on defense.
Hopefully, Vlad Goldin is healthier than he was against Penn State but everyone else should be good to go. Tip-off is set for 3:30 PM EST (Fox) and here are three keys and a prediction for Michigan basketball at Rutgers.
Guard your yard
Michigan basketball wants to force teams to play great in one-on-one situations. The problem with Rutgers is that the Scarlet Knights are built to do just that.
They have the lowest assist rate in the Big Ten but the league's highest scorer. That means we'll see lots of isolation stuff and lots of ball screens.
Rutgers can shoot the ball. They made 15 3-pointers on the road against Nebraska. Ace Baily and Dylan Harper were unstoppable in that game. Both are matchup problems for Michigan due to their size and speed.
Rutgers also shoots 34 percent from 3-point range. However, their offense can be streaky and there's a reason they are 14th in points per game. The key is making things tough on Harper and Bailey but that's easier said than done.
If those guys combine for 40 or more points, that's a great way for Michigan to lose on the road.
Play more through Trey
John Beilein said it earlier this week but the Wolverines need to allow Trey Donaldson to assert himself more. He took over against Penn State. He did the same against UCLA on the road.
Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf are key pieces but sometimes, Michigan has tried to play too much trough Wolf. He's had turnover issues and it's more just about Donaldson getting more chances.
The Wolverines don't beat Penn State without him. Taking advantage of Rutgers poor interior defense will be another key but Trey needs a stellar day.
Winning at your own game
Rutgers is 6th in terms of 3-point attempts allowed during Big Ten play. They allow more 2-pointers than 3-pointers but against Michigan, you can expect more 3-point attempts.
The Wolverines emphasize shots at the 3-point line and the rim. Since Rutgers allows more assists than any other team during Big Ten play, the Wolverines should get plenty of good looks.
Keeping the turnovers under control will be important, but that could be a side affect of giving Donaldson more play-making opportunities.
Donaldson has a lower usage rate but also a much lower turnover percentage than Wolf (26-16). So giving him the ball more could help reduce the turnovers and also lead to more quality looks.
Michigan wants to pass the ball and get good shots. Rutgers wants to play one-on-one and the team that wins will be able to execute better at its own game.
Prediction: Michigan 79, Rutgers 74