Suddenly, Michigan basketball is just a game out of first place in the Big Ten conference. Michigan State lost again last night, giving the Spartans two losses along with Purdue.
The Wolverines are 8-2 and host Oregon at 6:30 PM EST on the Big Ten Network. The Ducks have been struggling and have lost three games in a row. Oregon was ranked 16th last week but is fresh off a home loss to Nebraska.
Oregon is 16-6 overall but 5-6 in the Big Ten. This game is just as important for the Ducks as they try to add a quad-1 win to their NCAA tournament resume as it is to Michigan basketball, which is in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt halfway through the season.
Michigan is 21st in the Kenpom rankings. Oregon is 37th with the 50th adjusted defense. The Wolveriners are an 8.5-point favorite against the Ducks and here are three keys and a prediction.
Meet the moment
At this point in the season, it's clear what's at stake for everyone. Oregon, a team ranked last week, could be on the bubble if this skid continues. They will be desperate to turn things around and after a lackluster performance against Nebraska, you can expect Oregon's best effort.
Nebraska just wanted that game more on Sunday. The Huskers shot over 70 percent on 2-point attempts and managed Oregon's pressure defense well.
Nate Bittle, a 7-footer, has been one of the best shot blockers in the Big Ten but is shooting under 50 percent from the field in Big Ten games. Jackson Shelstad is the focal point for Oregon. He's their best scorer and playmaker.
Defending well against those guys and the 3-point line will be key, but more important than that, Michigan needs to match the level of urgency Oregon is certain to bring into this game.
Win the battle of the bigs
Vlad Goldin and Bittle should make for a fascinating matchup inside. The Ducks are 8th in the Big Ten in 2-point defense during conference play allowing teams to shoot 51 percent. Michigan basketball is shooting 60.1 percent overall on 2-pointers (6th in college basketball) but are shooting 57.1 percent in Big Ten games which is second.
Vlad Goldin has been off a little bit recently. He wasn't 100 percent in one game and although he turned on the scoring at the end of the win over Rutgers, Vlad needs to be Vlad tonight. He'll be defending and guarded by one of the better centers in the Big Ten.
Goldin has looked like the best center in the Big Ten at times this season and tonight would be a great night to return to that form.
Handle Oregon's pressure
Oregon is known for its pressure defense and with all of Michigan's turnover issues, you can bet the Ducks will be applying plenty of pressure.
Michigan is turning the ball over 14 times per game during conference play. That leads the Big Ten. However, Oregon is only forcing 10 turnovers per game during conference play. Frankly, the Ducks have been struggling on both ends of the floor.
The only thing they didn't do was allow a bunch of 3-point field goals against Nebraska, and that's only because the Huskers missed more than a few wide-open opportunities. Michigan needs to knock downs shots and will get opportunities, but if they keep the turnovers under 10, or even under 12, the Wolverines will win this game.
Prediction: Michigan 79, Oregon 72
I understand the spread but 8.5 seems a little large. Oregon does have to travel across the country, yet the Ducks are desperate for a win or should be and will play like it. Michigan basketball will win though.