After demolishing San Diego State and Auburn on back-to-back nights, the Michigan basketball team will level up with a final challenge at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas: Gonzaga.
After a win over Maryland got the Zags the second-best point differential among 2-0 teams, with Michigan basketball being at plus 40, the maximum number after two games, the two teams will meet Wednesday at 9:30 PM EST on TNT for the championship.
Gonzaga is ranked 11th in the AP Poll. Michigan is seventh. Both teams have Final Four aspirations this season, as well as dreams of cutting down the nets. Gonzaga always has size, and tons of skill. Their frontcourt is one of the few that can match up against Michigan's.
It should be a fascinating game. The winning team gets an extra $1 million and the Wolverines might even have a case for No. 1 after beating San Diego State and No. 21 Auburn by a combined 70 points.
Here are three keys and a prediction for Michigan vs. Gonzaga.
Strength vs. Strength
Michigan basketball has the 17th-best 2-point shooting percentage in college basketball at 63 percent. Defensively, the Wolverines ranked third, allowing just 35.2 percent on 2-pointers.
The Wolverines have been especially effective at guarding the rim and the paint. Aday Mara and Morez Johnson have been elite as defenders and on the glass. Graham Ike (6-9) and Braden Huff (6-10) are scoring 33 points combined this season for Gonzaga. Ike is shooting 54 percent and scoring 17 points per game. Huff isn't far behind at 16. He's shooting 67.5 percent on 2-pointers.
Gonzaga shoots 62.3 percent on twos, which is just behind Michigan. The Zags 2-point defense is solid, too, allowing 44.3 percent to opponents. Will that hold up against Michigan?
The Wolverines bullied their last two opponents. Auburn shot 33 percent on 2-pointers. Michigan got 40 percent of its misses on offensive rebounds. We'll see if that translates again.
Stay hot from deep
That will be easier said than done against a Gonzaga team that only allows teams to shoot 24 percent from 3-point range so far this season. The Zags are 148th in 3-point percentage. Michigan basketball ranks 97th with 9.3 triples per game.
The Wolverines hit 14 against Auburn and 11 against San Diego State. Michigan made 19 and scored 121 points against Oakland. When U-M reaches double figures in 3-point makes this season, the Wolverines are averaging 106.6 points per game.
So if they make 10 3-pointers or anywhere close, Gonzaga will be in trouble.
Extra possessions
In a game like this, turnovers and offensive rebounds are critical. Gonzaga forces 16.3 turnovers per game, which is 36th-best in college hoops. That will be a challenge. The Zags also rank in the top 40 in all three rebounding categories. Michigan was great on the offensive glass on Tuesday, yet the Wolverines are a top-five defensive rebounding team.
If they can maintain that, especially keeping Gonzaga off the offensive glass, it should go a long way toward securing a win. Keeping the turnovers in single digits will be key, too.
Michigan vs. Gonzaga prediction
The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone right now. Gonzaga could slow that roll. This is by far the most difficult test of the season so far, but these are the games Dusty May wanted. This is why he scheduled Duke after all.
May knows what Michigan is capable of. The Wolverines also need to test themselves against the best, against the kind of team they will see in March, on the second weekend.
Gonzaga is it. But if Yaxel Lendeborg plays the way he did during the first two games, Michigan will win. It feels like he's the X-factor in this game.
Michigan 89, Gonzaga 82.