3 keys and a prediction for Michigan basketball at Maryland

Michigan basketball will face its first road test of the 2025-26 season against Maryland on Saturday.
Michigan head coach Dusty May, center, talks to assistant coaches in a huddle at timeout against Villanova during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025.
Michigan head coach Dusty May, center, talks to assistant coaches in a huddle at timeout against Villanova during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Michigan basketball team, ranked No. 1 in the Coaches Poll, has been forgotten about this week with everything that is going on with the football program.

However, on Saturday night, Michigan fans should take the welcome escape to watch Dusty May and the Wolverines take on the Maryland Terrapins.

It's the first road game of the Big Ten season for Michigan basketball. The Wolverines also played a true road game against TCU, and needed a comeback to win.

Winning on the road in the Big Ten is never easy. Yet, Maryland has been struggling. Maryland is 6-4 with its best win coming over UNLV. Pharrel Payne, who scored a bunch of points against Michigan in the Second round game of the NCAA tournament last season, followed Buzz Williams over from Texas A&M. Solomon Washington did, too.

Darius Adams is a top-100 recruit who starts at point guard. He's averaging 13 points per game but has struggled with turnovers. The Wolverines are a heavy favorite and in their quest to win the Big Ten championship, the first goal of this season, every game is important.

Here are three keys and a prediction.

Keep offensive rebounds in check

Michigan is an excellent defensive rebounding team. The Wolverines are one of the best in college basketball. That will be tested by Maryland, which ranks 88th in terms of offensive boards. Maryland is a poor shooting team. They rank 338th in total field-goal percentage, 325th in 2-point percentage, and 272nd in 3-point percentage, so there will be chances to crash the boards.

Michigan is first in college basketball in defensive rebounds per game (34.6) and second in opponent field-goal percentage (34.5). That's a terrible matchup for Maryland, so as long as the Wolverines play solid defense on Payne and do a solid job on the glass, they should be in good shape.

Don't be sloppy

One thing Maryland can do is force turnovers. The Terps are among the top 100 teams in college basketball in forcing turnovers (14.7 per game). Michigan's one weakness is turnovers, although that is improving. Still, Michigan has turned it over 13.2 times per game (256th). The Wolverines are also forcing 13 turnovers per game, and as it happens, the Terps actually turn it over more (13.9 per game).

Maryland wants to play fast. Michigan likes to do that as well, but the Wolverines can't get sloppy. Having a big turnover disadvantage is one way the Terps could hang around.

Keep moving the ball

Maryland ranks 341st in terms of assists allowed to opponents at 17.1 per game. That's also a reason why Maryland ranks 330th in 3-point percentage defense (37 percent). Teams are able to move the ball against Maryland and get opens looks.

With Aday Mara and Morez Johnson inside, plus the playmaking ability of Elliot Cadeau and Yaxel Lendeborg, it's hard to see Maryland putting up much resistance defensively. As long as Michigan moves the ball as it usually does, it should get good looks.

Then, it's just about making them. Michigan shot 27 percent from 3-point range against Villanova and made 57 percent of its free throws. If the Wolverines shoot well in this game, which they should have the chance to do, watch out.

It could get ugly, again.

Michigan vs. Maryland prediction

At some point, Michigan will have a competitive game in the second half. On the road, it feels like that could be Saturday night. Tip-off time is 8 PM EST (FOX). That's a late start on a Saturday. Maryland will be fired up, and the Terps will get the margin more competitive.

Michigan's defense and shooting will prove to be the difference. The Wolverines will make more 3-pointers than they did against Villanova, and will win 96-75.

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