After a close call against Penn State earlier this week on the road, the second-ranked Michigan basketball team (AP Poll), and first in the Coaches Poll, will be back home to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in a rematch of the Big Ten title game.
Wisconsin has been sort of up and down this season. The Badgers are 10-5 and 2-2 in the Big Ten. They live and die by the 3-point shot, even more than usual. In some ways, that will challenge the Wolverines because the Badgers always have big guys who can shoot.
The Wisconsin offense is also centered on ball screens. You can expect Wisconsin to put Aday Mara into plenty of those situations. The Wolverines are a heavy favorite again (-19.5). In addition to the shooting bigs Wisconsin always has, the Badgers are led by guards Nick Boyd (19.4 ppg), a former Dusty May player at FAU, and John Blackwell (17.4 ppg). Nolan Winter (14.6 ppg), a 6-foot-11 junior, is the only former top-100 player on the roster.
Those three players average 50 points per game for the Badgers. Six Wisconsin players make at least 0.9 3-point field goals per game. That's what Michigan basketball will be up against.
Tip-off time is set for 1 PM EST on CBS Sports. Here are three keys and a prediction.
Don't let Wisconsin get hot
It feels like the only way Wisconsin is going to win this game is by catching fire from beyond the 3-point line. The Badgers' attempt rank 333rd in college basketball in 2-point attempts per game. Michigan ranks 333rd in 3-point attempts allowed per game (27.4). The Wolverines' rim protection forces teams to the outside. Yet, teams shoot just 28.8 percent against Michigan from beyond the arc. Wisconsin hasn't shot the ball great from deep, but if the Badgers get hot, that's one way they can pull a huge upset.
If that number (Wisconsin's 3-point percentage) is below 30 percent on Saturday, Michigan will win in a rout.
Attack Wisconsin's weakness
The Badgers don't offer much rim protection, and they are ranked 197th in 2-point percentage defense with 50.7 percent allowed. That's not a great sign with Michigan leading college basketball in 2-point percentage (65.3). If that holds, you have to like the Wolverines' chances.
Play fast
Michigan is ranked sixth via KenPom in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin is ranked 50th. The Badgers are playing faster than they used to under Greg Gard. That's a good thing for the Wolverines, who have dominated opposing teams with their transition offense all season.
According to UM Hoops, Wisconsin ranks 14th in transition defense. Michigan will need to get stops, but it should run as much as possible, in an effort run the Badgers off the floor, as the Wolverines have to a majority of their opponents this season.
Prediction: Michigan 91, Wisconsin 74