Win at least one extra-possession battle
We talked about turnovers. USC averages 11.6 per game compared to 15.2. Michigan forces 14 turnovers per game, and the Trojans force 13.9. So that's something to watch. The Wolverines need to keep things close and also take advantage of their size on the offensive glass. USC is allowing 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (128th) while ranking 346th in offensive rebounding (7.8).
Michigan basketball can afford to lose the turnover battle against USC, but the Wolverines need to have the edge on the offensive glass. If not, that's a recipe for an upset, especially against a team without a single 7-footer.
Prediction
Defense should be the difference here. The Wolverines have the No. 14 adjusted defense in college basketball according to the Kenpom rankings. USC is ranked 81. The Trojans don't appear to have any answers for the Wolverines inside, and as long as Michigan is sound in terms of fouls, turnovers, and rebounds, it should walk away with a win.
Michigan 78, USC 69