The top-ranked Michigan basketball team, according to Kenpom, and the Coaches Poll, will put its undefeated record on the line against USC tonight (7 PM EST, Peacock).
The Trojans are ranked 24th in the AP Poll and 38th in the Kenpom rankings. They are 1-1 in the Big Ten, led by head coach Eric Musselman, but are 12-1 overall and boast a talented roster.
Chad Baker-Mazara sits atop the scouting report. The Auburn transfer is lighting it up for the Trojans this season, averaging 22 points per game and shooting 36 percent from 3-point range.
Jacob Cofie, a 6-foot-10 transfer from Virginia, is another problem. He's a stellar rim protector and is one reason why the Trojans are ranked sixth in blocks per game. Cofie blocks 2.1 shots per game in 28 minutes and shoots 58 percent from the field.
USC leads college basketball in free throws made (22.9) and attempted (31.2) per game. That will be another challenge. They are solid from beyond the arc, and a better defensive team than you'd expect.
How will that hold up against Michigan basketball? Here are three keys and a prediction.
Play elite defense without fouling
In a battle of strengths, Michigan will need to keep USC off the free-throw line as much as possible. The good news is that the Wolverines rank in the top 50 in limiting free throw attempts, allowing 16.8 per game.
That's half of what USC shoots per game. If the Wolverines can keep that number in the teens or around 20, that's a win. Gettting it close to 30 is one way the Trojans can hang around.
Win the paint
This is going to be more difficult against USC than most other teams. The Trojans only allow 49 percent on field goal attempts at the rim.
That's where Michigan makes hay. Aday Mara, Morez Johnson and Yaxel Lendeborg have been stellar at attacking the rim. They aren't alone.
Michigan needs to win that battle, or it needs to find success on the offensive glass. Michigan ranks 172nd in offensive boards, while USC is ranked 289th in allowing them. That will be an interesting battle, and one that the Wolverines should win.
Fundamentals
The Wolverines have been one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball, ranking 28th in 3-point percentage (.383). They have gone cold at times this season, such as in tight games against TCU and Wake Forest.
If that happens again, as in Michigan makes less than five triples, it could open the door for USC. Another fundamental is taking care of the ball. Michigan averages 12.8 turnovers (232nd) and USC forces 14.2 (80th).
Take care of the ball and shoot well, and U-M should cruise.
Prediction
It feels like Michigan is due for a close game. USC matches up well with Michigan, and the Trojans are one of the most talented teams Michigan has faced. The Wolverines will win, but the Trojans will cover the spread, 92-77.