It's going to be a late night for Michigan basketball, as the Wolverines will take on San Diego State in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. There are 18 men's teams in attendance competing for a championship, and four women's teams.
Michigan will square off against San Diego State tonight at 10:30 PM EST, before a matchup against Auburn on Tuesday, a rematch of last year's Sweet 16 game.
Michigan will play a third game this week, depending on how the first two games go. San Diego State is ranked 41st in the Kenpom rankings. Auburn is 23rd. If those translate to the NET, down the road, it could mean two quad-1 opportunities for Michigan in back-to-back days.
The Wolverines have played some solid opponents. Middle Tennessee State and Oakland were decent mid-major teams, plus Wake Forest and TCU. This week will be a greater test, and it will be fascinating to see how Michigan basketball responds.
Michigan is ranked seventh in the AP Poll, although that could change this afternoon. It doesn't matter that much though. The ranking. This Michigan team is going to grow a lot over the next few months, leading up to March.
Dusty May cares about what the team looks like then, much more than right now. We'll see how much experimenting he does with his lineups, but it all starts against the Aztecs on Monday night (10:30 EST, TruTV).
Own the paint
This isn't going to be an easy game by any means. Brian Dutcher is the long-time head coach of San Diego State and coached them to the Final Four. He recruited Juwan Howard to Michigan, and his teams are tough. They defend well, and this one shoots it well, too.
At least San Diego has shot well through three games (41 percent from three). San Diego State can't match Michigan's size but it can better than most with 7-footer Magoon Gwath, who was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year in 2024-25.
Gwath missed the first two games but played in an overtime loss to Troy. He scored 20 points and blocked three shots. Last season, he averaged 2.6 blocks. He should be a challenge for Aday Mara and Morez Johnson inside.
The Aztecs 2-point defense is 133rd, allowing teams to make 48.5 percent. They also rank 242nd in defensive rebounding and 217th in total rebounding, so Michigan should be able to take advantage inside, and with the way it has been shooting from deep, it needs to.
Turnovers
Michigan basketball ranks 314th in terms of turning the ball over in college basketball with an average of 15.7 per game. San Dieg State also happens to turn the ball over 15.7 times per game.
However, the Atecs are forcing 17.7 turnovers per game (21st). They are one of the best teams at taking the ball away. Michigan basketball should be able to get some turnovers, too, so transition defense, and the kind of turnovers might matter.
Dead-ball turnovers are much more preferable to the kind that end up turning into a layup. Michigan basketball fans are likely sick of this theme, but turnovers will be a deciding factor once again.
Minimize the 3-point deficit
San Diego State is 268th in 3-point attempts and 128th in 3-point field goals (8.7) per game but the Aztecs are shooting 41.3 percent from deep, 19th-best in college basketball. They only allow their opponents to shoot 30.4 percent, so they have been solid on that end, too.
Michigan is giving up 9.5 3-pointers per game (320th). The percentage is 31.4 (142nd), which isn't terrible, but it's nothing to write home about. The Wolverines are also shooting just 32.7 percent (215th) after making 19 treys in the opener.
Michigan made more in the first game than it has the past three. The Wolverines haven't made more than five in a game since Oakland. That needs to change on Monday night against SDSU, a team that is deep and experienced.
Michigan vs. San Diego State prediction
Miles Byrd of SDSU shoots the heck out of the ball. Reese Dixon-Waters has also been scoring 15 a game with a 37.5 percent shooting percentage from deep. Michigan's defense is ranked sixth according to Kenpom's adjusted rankings. San Diego State is 18th. The Wolverines also have plenty of threats offensively, and some shots will start falling. It also feels like a game for Yaxel Lendeborg to establish his will as he did against Middle Tennessee State.
It will be a defensive battle, but the Wolverines win as a 5.5-point favorite, covering the spread, barely.
Michigan 78, San Diego State 72,