Michigan basketball got an unfortunate break on Wednesday night as Michigan State knocked off Maryland, thanks to a buzzer beater.
A Maryland win would have given Michigan basketball some margin for error in the Big Ten title race. As it stands, there is none. The Wolverines need to win their last three home games, which would set up a winner-take-all final game against MSU for the Big Ten crown.
The Wolverines still have work to do, though. They have won seven of their last eight games, but all of those wins have come by four points or less. Don't get me wrong, it's good to see Michigan basketball closing out close games, but the Wolverines haven't been surviving as much as anything.
Can they keep it up tonight against Rutgers? Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite. The game is only available on Peacock, and here are three keys, plus a prediction for Michigan vs. Rutgers.
Keep the stars in check
Rutgers is 14-14. They are just fighting to make sure they are in the Big Ten tournament and possibly the NIT. However, the Scarlet Knights have seven Big Ten wins. They have also scored some impressive road wins such as a win over Nebraska.
The key bullet point on the scouting report are the two future NBA draft lottery picks -- Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. Bailey is a 6-foot-10 wing who scores 18.4 points per game in addition to grabbing 7.4 rebounds. Harper is scoring 19.4 points per game in addition to 4.2 assists.
They are each three-level scorers. Bailey makes 1.7 3-pointers per game. Harper makes 1.8. Bailey is also one of the best shot blockers in the Big Ten (1.5 per game) while Harper averages 1.6 steals per game.
Rutgers is 16th in 2-point field goal percentage, and they don't have a proven low-post threat. So if the Scarlet Knights are going to pull the upset, Harper and Bailey will have to do the heavy lifting, and each probably needs to score 20 plus for Rutgers to have a shot.
So Michigan just needs to make them work. Those players will get their points, the key is making them take as many shots to get there as possible.
Own the paint
The Scarlet Knights are fourth in the Big Ten in blocked shots per game, but outside of that, there isn't anything to write home about when it comes to the Rutgers defense.
Rutgers is 11th in 2-point defense in the Big Ten and 14th in 3-point defense. They are allowing the third-most offensive rebounds in the conference.
Vlad Goldin made 6-of-8 attempts in the first matchup, and it feels like Rutgers doesn't have an answer for him. Either way, the Wolverines should dominate on the offensive glass, and if they are going to have any chance of covering the spread, Michigan basketball needs to own the battle of the paint.
Make some 3-pointers
The Wolverines are going to keep getting good looks from 3-point range due to the presence of Goldin and Wolf inside and at some point, they need to start making them.
Michigan basketball has shot under 25 percent from 3-point range in each of the past two games. If that happens again versus Rutgers, who knows what will happen? The Wolverines have found a way to grind out wins when they aren't shooting well, but that won't continue forever.
And it would be nice to see Michigan basketball at least shoot 30 percent from deep tonight.
Prediction: Michigan 77, Rutgers 70
The spread is 10.5 points in favor of Michigan basketball but the Wolverines have to start hitting some perimeter shots to cover. I'm not convinced that will happen but think the law of averages will kick in. U-M will make enough to win. There is just too much for Rutgers to overcome.