It doesn't get much bigger than this for Michigan basketball.
Some fans might be looking ahead to the top-3 matchup against Duke on Saturday, which will be epic. However, in the grand scheme of things, this Purdue game trumps it in terms of importance.
If the newly-minted No. 1 Wolverines win on Tuesday night, they will take a massive step toward securing the Big Ten regular-season championship. Michigan has a two-game lead on Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska.
Yet, a loss would get those teams back within a game, with another road game looming against Illinois. There are also games against Iowa and Michigan State. It feels like Michigan needs to win one of the two road games against Purdue/Illinois to win the league title on its own.
Purdue has won four games in a row after a three-game losing skid. They have beaten four ranked teams this season, including a win last week on the road over seventh-ranked Nebraska.
The Boilermakers have an elite offense. Purdue has the second-best adjusted offense in the country via Kenpom, while Michigan has the No. 1 defense. Braden Smith is averaging 14.7 points per game, 8.9 assists, and is shooting 41.5 percent from 3-point range. Fletcher Loyer is also shooting the heck out of the ball, averaging 2.6 3-point field goals per game (38 percent). And of course, Trey Kaufman-Renn is one of the best finishers coming off a ball screen in college basketball.
Purdue starts four seniors, who have all played together for multiple seasons. Matt Painter is as good as it gets as a head coach as there is in the Big Ten, and the Boilermakers are hot. This is the greatest test of the season so far, and here are three bold predictions for Michigan basketball at Purdue.
Hit the over
These are of two of the best offenses in college basketball. Frankly, you could make the case that these are the two best offensive teams in college basketball.
Michigan is ranked fourth in the Kenpom rankings in terms of adjusted offense. Their dominant front court will challenge a Purdue team that doesn't offer any rim protection. Both teams are decent at forcing turnovers. Michigan is actually second in the Big Ten with 11.3 forced per game, however, the Wolverines turn it over 11.2 times per game, too.
Turnovers will be an X-factor. Michigan wants to play a lot faster than Purdue, and if the Boilermakers are going to win this one, they'll need to score in the 80s. The over is 155.5. These two teams will exceed that, and both could hit the 80s easily, depending on tempo.
Wolverines dominate the paint, just like last time
Michigan has won two games in a row over Purdue. There was the 75-73 win in Ann Arbor last season, as well as the 86-68 romp in the Big Ten quarterfianls last March.
Yet Purdue also beat Michigan at Mackey Arena last season, 91-64. U-M turned the ball over on 25 percent of its possessions. Purdue shot 65 percent on 2s. In the other two games, Purdue shot 43.5 percent on 2-pointers and 34.9 percent.
Purdue is third in the Big Ten at 58.2 percent on 2-point attempts. The Boilers' defense is 15th, though, allowing teams to shoot 55.1 percent. Purdue also gives up the 8th-most offensive rebounds in the Big Ten, and in all three games last season, Michigan rebounded over 30 percent of its misses.
Tonight, Michigan will rebound over 40 percent of its misses, and it will outscore the Boilermakers in the 2-point battle. Michigan is first in 2-point offense and 2-point defense in the Big Ten, shooting 61.1 percent and allowing teams to shoot 46.9.
So tonight, Michigan will have the offensive rebounding edge, and it will have a double-digit edge on 2-point shooting percentage.
Michigan's bench is the difference
Both teams consistently play four players off the bench. Michigan and Purdue have nine guys averaging double-digit minutes in Big Ten play. So it's clear and easy to compare the bench of both teams.
Michigan is getting an average of 27.6 points per game. Purdue averages 17.9. Trey McKenney and L.J. Cason are each scoring over eight points per game. That tandem has been an X-factor, and they will continue to be on Tuesday night, as one or maybe both will reach double figures.
Michgan has gotten double-digit scoring from one of those two guards off the bench in eight straight games. Against Northwestern and Penn State, both McKenney and Cason were in double figures.
That might be a stretch tonight. Yet, 15-20 points from Cason and McKenney could be the difference in the game between two elite college basketball teams.
Michgan basketball has the best starting lineup in the sport, but it has the best bench, too.
Prediction: Michigan 82, Purdue 76