Trying to focus on the game, Michigan football takes on Purdue on Saturday, and here are five predictions for the Wolverines.
I don’t know about any other Michigan football fans, but it will be refreshing to watch the Wolverines on Saturday night instead of the constant battle royale on social media.
The NCAA investigation into Michigan football is what it is. When it’s all said and done, my opinion is that it won’t be as big of a deal as ESPN and the national media have made it out to be. Those publications are spinning the Ohio State narrative.
Michigan football, especially Connor Stalions isn’t innocent. There should be punishment if the investigation does indeed prove that rules were broken. The punishment should fit the crime though and banning Michigan from the postseason or suspending Jim Harbaugh is ridiculous.
Michigan hasn’t even gotten a notice of investigation from the NCAA on this matter or a notice of allegation related to Burger Gate. The Big Ten should defer to the NCAA because, in terms of facts, it has none, outside of what the NCAA can gather through its investigation.
That being said, let’s try to focus some on football, and here are five predictions for Michigan football vs. Purdue.
A motivated Michigan football team
The Wolverines dominated Michigan State in their first game since the news of the investigation came out and my sense is that they’ll have a point to prove on Saturday too.
Michigan shouldn’t leave any doubt. I wouldn’t leave J.J. McCarthy or other star players in the game longer than needed but I wouldn’t run six straight QB dives up 42-0 either.
I’d have the full open playbook. That being said, the team needs to focus on playing good football instead of enacting revenge. That could be a recipe for trouble.
This team is veteran-laden though and despite all this noise, the mission is the same if they keep the main thing the main thing, as J.J. says — they will destroy Purdue.
The defense will hit Hudson Card plenty
Last week was really ugly for Purdue offensively. Nebraska has a damn good defense, but the Boilermakers were still held under 100 yards passing and rushing.
One thing that wasn’t really new was the fact that Card faced heavy pressure last week against Nebraska. The number of sacks doesn’t even reflect how often Card was running for his life in what ended up as a 31-14 loss.
Purdue allowed just one sack last week. This time around, I don’t see that being the case. Michigan football’s pass rush is even better than Nebraska’s, especially on an individual level.
The Boilermakers offensive line is in shambles. They also have an air raid offense, which will be a recipe for lots of hits and at least three sacks of Hudson Card on Saturday.
Another big game for J.J. McCarthy
In terms of pass defense, Purdue isn’t much better than Michgan State. The Boilermakers have allowed 14 touchdown passes in eight games. They have also allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt which is tied for worst in the Big Ten with MSU.
Purdue does have a solid defensive front. The Boilermakers also forced four takeaways last week at Nebraska — but all of those were fumbles and Nebraska has fumbled 24 times this season, so it’s not like that was unique to Purdue.
Michigan football leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes (20) and also averages 10.1 yards per attempt, which is mostly due to McCarthy.
He’s been the best quarterback in the league and the country in my opinion. McCarthy will need protection but when he’s been able to avoid the rush, he’s been even more dangerous.
McCarthy won’t play long enough to throw for 300 yards, but he’ll have three total touchdowns at least in another Heisman-type performance.
The run game finds success
We need to redefine success for the Michigan football running game this season. The Wolverines probably aren’t going to rush for 300 yards in this game, as they did at times a season ago.
The offensive line isn’t at the same level and Blake Corum also isn’t quite the same. I’m really hoping the bye week allowed the running game time to gel and get going because it will need to improve if Michigan is going to beat Ohio State and win the national championship.
Corum has only received 20 carries or more once this season and that was the 97-yard game against Rutgers. Blake is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and against a defense that has allowed double-digit rushing touchdowns, I see him finding the end zone at least once.
I also think Donovan Edwards finally has a good game. He’s due for an explosive run or two and I feel one coming on Saturday.
5. Purdue will find the end zone
Prior to the Michigan State game, the Wolverines had struggled a little at defending big plays. In the four prior Big Ten games, the Wolverines had allowed at least one touchdown of 35 yards or more in each game.
That streak was snapped against Michigan State. It feels like Purdue has more ability to create that kind of explosive touchdown. Hudson Card is actually a pretty solid quarterback, who also has some nice weapons if everyone is healthy.
With Michigan fresh off a bye week, there could be some rust and the Wolverines might be pressing a bit early due to the whole scandal. That’s why I see Purdue finding its way into the end zone at some point.
I also think it will lead to a competitive first half.
Michigan football vs. Purdue prediction
The Wolverines shouldn’t really struggle in this game. Michigan leads the Big Ten in scoring offense with 40.3 points per game, while Purdue is last in scoring defense by allowing 30.3 points per game.
The talent gap feels far too wide. Michigan also hasn’t lost a home game since 2020 and I don’t see Purdue being the team to break that streak. I also don’t see them covering the spread.
Michgan 45, Purdue 10