Michigan football will defend the Paul Bunyan Trophy this week against Michigan State and here are five things to watch.
When it comes to Michigan football and Michigan State, you can throw the records out the window. The Spartans have a way of upsetting the Wolverines, even when they are heavy underdog.
This Michigan football team should be extremely focused. Not only are the Wolverines aiming to win a national championship, but they are looking for a second straight win over MSU.
The players haven’t talked about the post-game incident between the two teams last season, but you can bet the Wolverines haven’t forgotten.
As far as the 2-4 Spartans are concerned, this is an important game in terms of them reaching a bowl game. It would also save their season.
It will be the first and only game for Harlon Barnett as Michigan State head coach against Michigan football and here are five things to watch.
Can J.J. McCarthy notch another rivalry win?
J.J. McCarthy has had some great moments against rivals. He’s 2-0 as a starter against Michigan State and Ohio State. He also played a role in the win over the Buckeyes in 2021.
McCarthy did have a touchdown pass in the loss to Michigan State, as well as a fourth-quarter exchange that was fumbled between him and Blake Corum.
One of the few things McCarthy hasn’t done yet during his career is win at Spartan Stadium and I would love to see him exercise those 2021 demons on Saturday.
It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere and hopefully, McCarthy can keep thriving as he has all season.
2. Strengths against strengths
Michigan State’s defense has been respectable this season. The Spartans rank 61st in scoring defense and are allowing 24.3 points per game.
When Jim Harbaugh mentioned Michigan State’s third-down defense this week, though, he wasn’t kidding as the Spartans allow teams to convert just 27 percent of the time, which ranks third in all of the FBS.
However, it just so happens that the Wolverines are the best third-down team Michigan State has faced yet this season. Michigan football is fourth in third-down conversions at 55 percent. The Wolverines are also ranked 16th in third-down defense, allowing just 31 percent.
In another category that should help decide the outcome, Michigan State is ranked sixth in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed. MSU is giving up 3.4 yards per attempt this season, while the Wolverines are fourth in the Big Ten in rushing yards.
Michigan isn’t running the ball as much but it’s been effective and Nebraska was allowing 1.8 yards per attempt prior to its matchup with the Wolverines, who ran for 249 yards and 4.9 yards per attempt against the Huskers.
The special teams advantage
Michigan State didn’t have a great week on special teams. Leading 24-6 against Rutgers, Michigan State had a punt blocked. Rutgers recovered it for a touchdown and the game was never the same after that.
Rutgers also got a 22-yard punt return during its rally. The Wolverines have been one of the better special teams units in the country under Harbaugh and you wonder if Michigan can find something to take advantage of this week.
Tyler Morris has been coming on as a punt returner. He busted off a return last week for 27 yards and it feels like he’s really close to an ever-bigger run back.
Blocked kicks, returns, and the like can really change the momentum in a game like this, so it’s important for the Wolverines to execute and win in that 1/3 of the game.
How will Katin Houser hold up?
Katin Houser has had some good moments so far this season in his limited play. Last week was his first start and he’s completed 60 percent of his passes.
Houser has thrown two touchdowns and one interception. He had Michigan State in a position before things came off the rails last week. It’s not like it was only about him at quarterback but Houser held up just fine at Rutgers.
Michigan’s defense will be the best that he’s faced so far this season. Jesse Minter is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and Michigan football hasn’t allowed a single point to opponents in the third quarter.
Nate Carter is a player that the Wolverines will need to contain. If he can give the Spartans some balance, Houser will have a shot. But if Michigan can make MSU one-dimensional, it could be a long day for Hauser who is making just his second career start.
Can the Spartans make this a game?
Before the season, I felt like this was going to be one of the most difficult games on the schedule. Mel Tucker, before he was fired, did beat Michigan twice.
There was some fluke to it, but the Spartans have found ways over the years to beat better Michigan teams. Charles Woodson’s team didn’t suffer that fate in 1997. However, we don’t want to see history repeat itself and the last thing Michigan wants is a close game.
A fast start is critical. Michigan football needs to take the crowd out of the game and hopefully, the Wolverines can suffocate a win early in the second half against MSU.
That’s going to be much easier said than done though. MSU will be aiming to play its best game of the season and it wouldn’t shock me if the Spartans gave their fans some things to cheer about on Saturday night.
Michigan is far and away the better team though. McCarthy is playing as well as any quarterback in the country. That, combined with the Wolverines’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense (6.7 points per game allowed) is a scary combination and one that should carry the Wolverines to victory.