ESPN FPI gives Ohio State better Big Ten title odds than Michigan Football

Michigan football fans won’t like the new ESPN FPI projections, which have Ohio State rated higher than the Wolverines. 

The ESPN FPI has doubted the Michigan football team before and the Wolverines have proven it wrong. We’ll see if it happens again in 2023.

New projections were released by the ESPN FPI which ranked Michigan football as the sixth-best team in college football behind No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 LSU, and No. 5 Texas. Michigan was sixth, followed by USC, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Penn State.

The ESPN FPI gives the Wolverines just a 14 percent chance of winning the Big Ten and just a 17 percent chance of winning the Big Ten East. Michigan football does have a 25 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff which is a little confusing.

Here’s why I think the FPI is giving the Wolverines lower odds of winning the Big Ten title and the Big Ten East for a third year in a row.

Why is the ESPN FPI down on Michigan football?

In terms of the overall ranking, I do think Michigan is underrated. The Wolverines lost some key starters to the NFL but most of them are being replaced with NFL-caliber talent, so there isn’t expected to be much dropoff.

The offensive and defensive lines should be just as good. I’m a little worried about the pass rush but think it will be just fine. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are each back, along with starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

However, some of this has to do with the schedule and the fact that Michigan plays at 10th-ranked Penn State, while Ohio State will be at home against the Nittany Lions. Michigan also has to play at Michigan State.

If there was a three-way tie between Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State, I don’t know how that would play out. But it’s hard to see the Buckeyes reaching the Big Ten title game with a loss against Michigan, however, it could depend on what happens when they host Penn State.

At any rate, these projections don’t matter anyway. Alabama and Ohio State are loaded with talent and anyone who thinks beating Ohio State will be easy next season is sorely mistaken.

The Wolverines will be at home. Ohio State will also be desperate. However, the Buckeyes do have a new starting quarterback and a two-game losing streak against U-M.

Either way, I’m glad we’ll determine this on the field because two years ago, the ESPN FPI gave Michigan about a 2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten and we know how that worked out.