3 keys, a prediction and how to watch Michigan Basketball vs Virginia

Michigan basketball faces a huge test Tuesday night as third-ranked Virginia will come to Ann Arbor. Here are three keys, a prediction, and how to watch. 

The Michigan basketball season hasn’t started the way we expected. The Wolverines are sitting at 5-1 heading into a showdown against Virginia, but the record doesn’t tell the whole story.

Michigan basketball was beaten badly by Arizona State and then followed it up with an overtime win over Ohio and then a single-digit victory over Jackson State.

Both of those teams ranked well outside the top 200 of the Kenpom rankings and on Tuesday, the No. 5 team and No. 3 ranked team in the AP poll comes to Ann Arbor in Virginia.

Tony Bennett’s club is the exact opposite of the Wolverines. The Cavaliers have all five of their starters back from last year, while Michigan has just Hunter Dickinson.

Juwan Howard is trying to piece together everything, but like last season, the first month or so has been a struggle as this team tries to find its identity.

Michigan basketball is certainly going to find out a lot about itself on Tuesday night as it takes on Virginia in the Big Ten/ACC challenge and here are the keys, a prediction against the spread, and also all the key info on how to watch.

Key 1 — Get Hunter Dickinson going

This is going to be easier said than done against Virginia because the Cavaliers rank in the 91st percentile defending post-ups according to UMHoops. The Cavaliers are also in the 90th percentile defending ball screens and have the No. 14 adjusted defense according to Kenpom.

Dickinson is off to a great start averaging 18.5 points per game and making 60 percent of his shots from the field. But he’s taking two fewer shots per game than last season and tonight, he needs to be the focal point from start to finish.

Kadin Shedrick is a 6-foot-11 big man and he’s a pretty good rim protector. It will be interesting to see how much Virginia doubles, but even if it does, Dickinson needs to establish himself early and probably score at least 20 points if U-M is going to have any chance tonight.

Key 2 — Stay even at the 3-point line

Virginia is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball. The Cavaliers make 8.6 3-pointers per game (Michigan makes 8.2) but Virginia is shooting 44 percent and has the sixth-best percentage in college hoops.

Michigan basketball, on the other hand, is shooting 31.8 percent and ranks 253rd. The plan for defense has been pretty simple — collapse inside and force the Wolverines to hit shots.

So far, it hasn’t happened. Virginia doesn’t like to give up open 3-pointers and like Michigan, wants to force difficult 2-point attempts. However, if they have to focus and double on Dickinson, Michigan should get some good looks.

Guys like Jett Howard, Kobe Bufkin, Joey Baker, and Terrance Williams just need to make them. If Michigan gets outscored at the 3-point line and Virginia shoots better than 40 percent from deep, the Wolveriners aren’t going to win this game.

Key 3 — Defense can’t fall apart

The Wolverines aren’t a strong defensive team this year and the issues go beyond Hunter Dickinson. Michigan is 204th in points allowed and ranks outside the top 100 in every major category except free throws attempted.

There hasn’t been much rim protection and the defensive breakdowns have been frustrating. If you give these Virginia shooters any space at all, they will make you pay. There can’t be mistakes in transition, especially against a team that ranks 28th nationally in assists with 17.4 per game.

Michigan isn’t going to be a great defensive team overnight, but a lot of the fundamental breakdowns should be able to be fixed. This team can defend better than it has shown and against one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country, it will need to.

Michigan basketball vs Virginia odds and prediction

The Wolverines are a 3.5-point underdog tonight against Virginia according to Fan Duel. The over/under is set for 128.5. Michigan is capable of winning this game but it’s going to take a dominating effort from Dickinson, as well as good shooting nights, especially from Howard, Williams, Bufkin, and Joey Baker.

I’ve been terrible about picking Michigan games this season but that’s three games in a row that the Wolverines haven’t covered the spread and tonight makes it four as Virginia wins 70-65.

Michigan basketball vs Virginia how to watch

Michigan basketball will play Virginia on Tuesday night on ESPN at 9:30 PM EST. It can also be streamed on Fubo TV.