Michigan Basketball: 3 Predictions for Wolverines vs Ohio State

Michigan wins battle of strengths

Coming into this matchup, according to Kenpom, Michigan is the fourth-best team and Ohio State is fifth. Both teams have elite offenses but the Buckeyes are third in offensive efficiency and are sixth in the nation with 1.15 points per possession.

The Wolverines are 47th overall in defensive points per possession and also 21st in points per possession. Ohio State, on the other hand, has a defense that ranks 213th in defensive points per possession, which is where Michigan can take advantage.

But the key to the game is going to be on defense. Ohio State has been tremendous shooting the ball from 3-point range lately and is shooting 36 percent in conference play.

Duane Washington drilled eight triples against Michigan in two games a year ago and he’s averaging 2.8 makes and is making 38 percent of his deep attempts this year.

Yet, Michigan basketball leads the Big Ten in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolverines are long and they don’t give up that many shots from beyond the arc. But even when they do, they are effective at contesting and we’ll see how that translates to Sunday.

Ohio State is also very good at drawing fouls, while Michigan tends not to foul very often. Ohio State shoots 21 free throws per game in conference play compared to U-M which has allowed opposing teams to shoot just 11.

Even at that high rate, Ohio State shoots just two more foul shots per game, while the Wolverines are plus on their opponents (17 per game to 11).

These two battles of strength will be vital to who wins and I feel good about U-M’s chances to come out ahead or at least fight to a draw in these categories.