Michigan football is putting together a solid 2021 recruiting class and as we approach the closing stretch, here are five thoughts so far.
The 2021 recruiting class has been an interesting one for Michigan football. At times, fans have been super stoked and at other points, there has been lots of concern.
Last spring, Michigan football landed huge commitments from five-star quarterback J.J. McCarthy and four-star offensive tackle Giovanni El-Hadi. And for nearly a year, those were the only two commitments as part of the Wolverines’ 2021 recruiting class.
But since late March, when three-star defensive end Dominick Giudice committed to the Wolverines, soon after he was offered, Michigan football has reeled in 15 verbal commitments.
Six of those commitments have come from four-star prospects and those guys are LB’s Junior Colson and Jaydon Hood, defensive end Kechaun Bennett, offensive lineman Greg Crippen and Raheem Anderson, as well as tight end Louis Hansen. All of those guys ranked inside the top 300 of the 247 composite rankings, outside of Bennett, who is No. 329.
The Wolverines also landed two defenders who are three stars but ranked in the top 500 in safety Rod Moore and linebacker Tyler McLaurin. U-M has also landed three-star wideout Markus Allen, three-star tackle Tristan Bounds, three-star corner Ja’Den McBurrows, three-star defensive end TJ Guy, three-star linebacker Casey Phinney, and also three-star punter Tommy Doman, who is the No. 1 punter in the country for what it’s worth.
Recently, Bud Elliot of 247 sports put together his blue-chip ratio for 2020 and Michigan is one of the teams with enough talent to win a national title in that metric. It measures what percentage of your recruits are five and four-star talents or “Blue Chips.”
Elliot contends you need at least 50 percent over a four-year period to have the talent required to compete and win for a national championship. According to Maize and Brew, Michigan has been around 60 percent during the Harbaugh era.
I bring this up, because with 17 commits already in 2021, the so-called blue-chip ratio seems like a great place to start in this breakdown of this year’s recruiting class.
The 2021 class will have a positive blue-chip ratio
Taking a look at where Michigan football stands with its current blue-chip ratio in the 2021 class, the Wolverines are sitting at 47 percent with eight prospects rated as four stars or better. The other nine guys are in the three-star range as we listed on the previous page.
For one, Michigan should have nine four-star commits because safety Rod Moore, out of Ohio, should definitely be a four-star prospect. It’s insane that he isn’t.
Now that I’ve got that out of the way, let’s look at some of the targets Michigan is leading with and by leading, I mean having multiple expert predictions.
When it comes to Quintin Somerville, who is committing June 20, George Rooks, Christian Dixon and Drew Kendall, each four-star recruits in 2021, they have all multiple projections from both 247 sports and Rivals, predicting them to Michigan. The Wolverines also lead in expert picks for Donovan Edwards and Rocco Spindler, two elite, top-50 targets.
If the class winds up at 26, then Michigan football would need six four-star commitments to have a positive blue-chip ratio or at least five to get to 50 percent, at a minimum.
Ultimately, I believe Michigan gets Spindler and Edwards, as well as Kendall, Rooks, Dixon, Kendall and Rayshaun Benny, giving the Wolverines 15 four stars and a ratio of 60 percent, which has been the norm.
Even if U-M gets the four listed above, plus one of Edwards, Benny and Spindler, it would be at 50 percent and I don’t see the percentage lower than that when it’s all said and done.
The 2021 class has Michigan’s missing piece
One of the most interesting things to take away after examining Elliot’s blue-chip chart is that teams with the most talent don’t always win the national championship.
In fact, since 2011, four teams at 64 percent or lower have won the College Football Playoff and they were Florida State (53 percent in 2013), Clemson (52 percent in 2016), Clemson (61 percent in 2018) and LSU (64 percent in 2019).
With Michigan’s number hovering around 60 percent, that should give Wolverine fans hope, that yes, the program is very close to being elite. It’s just missing one thing: A transcendent quarterback.
Elite quarterback play is what allowed FSU, LSU and Clemson to win those titles. There was Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, DeShaun Watson and Joe Burrow. Michigan football needs that kind of quarterback to take the next step and in 2021, it appears they have found it in McCarthy, who is the No. 15 prospect in the 2021 class according to the 247 sports composite rankings and happens to hate Ohio State.
Both Joe Milton and Dylan McCaffrey were high-ranking four stars too, so it’s possible they are the ones to finally help Michigan get over the hump, but either way, U-M is on the cusp.
Michigan’s O-line haul will be impressive
It’s pretty incredible to see what offensive line coach Ed Warinner has done at Michigan football since arriving before the 2018 season. Not only has he turned the Wolverines into a really solid group on the field, but he’s turned into a force on the recruiting trail.
In this cycle, Warinner has helped Michigan get four commitments and three of them are from four-star recruits. El-Hadi is the prize right now and a future right tackle, while 6-foot-8 Tristan Bounds is going to an exciting player to watch develop. Crippen and Anderson, the other commitments, have a good shot to be future starters at guard and center.
The key now is finishing and for the Wolverines in 2021, that means closing the deal with Spindler and Kendall. Both players are guards and ranked in the top 100. In some ways, it might seem curious to bring in four interior offensive lineman, but for one, you should never turn away elite talent and two, when Michigan was great, the offensive line was a big reason why.
U-M needs to get back to that and after getting four players drafted in 2020, it is. And with what could be a six-man O-line recruting class, with potentially five four-star commitments, the future is looking very bright thanks to Ed.
Defense will finish strong
When Michigan football first started going on a run of commitments in April and later May, there was some concern about the number of three stars being added to the class, especially on defense.
With the departures of key assistants, Chris Partridge and Anthony Campanile, it’s not a surprise that it took a minute for recruiting on the defensive side of the ball to catch up to the offense, but new coaches Bob Shoop and Brian Jean-Mary have done their part and now, things are looking more balanced.
While just one of the top six commitments in the 2021 class is a defensive player and that’s outside linebacker Junior Colson, five of the top 10 players overall in the class are defenders, including three of the eight four stars.
Plus, with Michigan being in a good spot with Somerville and Rooks, plus Benny, even if there is a long way to go there, the Wolverines should continue to add talent and again at some point, it wouldn’t be shocking to see someone like Rod Moore or even McLaurin get a fourth star.
Edwards is still the key
The most important piece to the puzzle for the 2021 class is Donovan Edwards, the No. 3 running back in the 247 composite rankings and the No. 37 player overall.
Edwards is incredibly dynamic, both as a running back and a receiver. And he’s the kind of skill position player that Michigan football just hasn’t had, at least at the running back position. Landing him will be difficult. Georgia and Oklahoma are among the chief rivals right now, along with Notre Dame and Michigan State. I’m still weary of Ohio State too.
Edwards wants to compete for a national championship and be a transcendent player and he can do both at Michigan. He could certainly star at other places, but if he were to carry the Wolverines to the playoff, his stardom would reach an entirely new level.
Obviously, he’s one of the top two players in the state and since Michigan has no shot at the No. 1 guy, it really needs to land Edwards, and Spindler too for that matter. The only thing with Spindler is that even if the Wolverines miss on him, there is Kendall as a consolation.
There really isn’t something like that if Michigan misses on Edwards. They have put all their eggs in his basket so to speak and not landing him could only be describe as a massive disappointment, but things seem positive with him, so there are definitely reasons for optimism.