Michigan Basketball: Wolverines lead Cardinals in one important statistic

Michigan basketball meets Louisville tonight in what is must-see T.V. The Cardinals are expected to win but Wolverines lead in one important statistic.

Very few are predicting Michigan basketball, the fourth-ranked team in the nation, to beat Louisville, the No. 1 team in the nation. ESPN gives the Cardinals a 78% chance to win the game and the line is set at somewhere around -5 in favor of the home team. Some argue the Wolverines should be on top after the terrific showing in the Bahamas, but the Cardinals, it is said, have the talent and scoring prowess.

However, talent is subjective and we all saw how UNC’s Cole Anthony, the No. 1 PG from the 2019 class, was outscored by Eli Brooks, a guy who barely broke into the ratings. It happened again in the Championship match when a talent-laden Gonzaga group had one star break the ten-point barrier while the Wolverines had four.

The other argument for Lousiville is their effective scoring and their stingy defensive. Coming into the game, both teams average around 82 points per game while UM allows 66 points to the Cardinals 61.

Digging deeper into the numbers using Kenpom, you’ll see an even more drastic difference between the two. Lousiville has an NCAA leading +26.83 adjusted efficiency rating, the second-best adjusted offensive efficiency, and the eighth-best defensive efficiency rating. The Wolverines are 10th, 25th, and 12th, respectively.

An even deeper dive will land you to the root of the problem with statistics: If you don’t contextualize the data, it means nothing.

The strength of schedule provides the necessary context and out of 353 Division I programs, Lousiville ranks nearly dead last (308). While Michigan was in the midst of a tournament full of basketball elites, Lousiville was earning wins over cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Akron.

Before that, the Cardinals really challenged themselves against North Carolina Central and South Carolina Upstate. The only admirable opponent that the No. 1 team in the country has faced is one of their ACC rivals, unranked Miami.

One team has battled the goliaths of college basketball, while the other is preparing for the season with schools in the bottom 300.

Respect

Becoming the powerhouse Louisville has after it’s scandalous past is no easy feat. NCAA sanctions can have an immeasurable impact on recruiting and can quickly lead to a culture of losing and blaming the poor performances on past infractions. That’s not the case here for Louisville. Head coach Chris Mack has his team in tip-top shape coming off a 20 win season, but respect must be earned and it hasn’t been yet.

Despite losing its winningest head coach in program history, this Michigan basketball team is firing on all cylinders and they’ve put their money where their mouth is by taking on the best and beating them. The Wolverines are coming off a 30 win season with a foundation stronger than any other.

Tonight, at 1 Arena Plaza, in Louisville, the Cardinals will either earn the respect and keep their unwarranted ranking or Michigan will prove once again that they are the least respected program in college basketball.