Michigan Basketball: Michigan vs. Tennessee – The Dreaded 8/9 Match-up
Posted at 8:00AM — 3/17/2011
Michigan Basketball: Michigan vs. Tennessee – The Dreaded 8/9 Match-up
NCAA Tournament “March Madness”
Second Round — West Region
Date: Friday, March 18
Time: 12:40 p.m.
Venue: Time Warner Cable Arena
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Channel: TruTV
DirecTV Channel: 246 SD and 246-1 HD
In Office Pools:
Many wise fellas take a ten or 11 seed over an 8-9. The reason is obvious, the winner gets a game against a number one seed that basically just had a bye. The chances of an upset are slim, but slim beats none. But the above discussion totally puts the cart before the horse since any talk of playing a number 1 seed is premature. To play the number 1 seed, an 8-9 seed must first win its assigned game.
Historically, the 8-9 games have been close and difficult to predict. Some of the big boy pools are decided by who comes out best on the 8-9 games. Most hope for and will settle for three out of four. Like most 8-9 games, this match-up between Tennessee and Michigan is intriguing and on the surface appears to be about an even match-up. The Volunteers are clearly more athletic and the Wolverines are more into system and thinking basketball.
Factors:
The biggest advantage in this game is the inside play of Tennessee’s big and talented freshman forward Tobias Harris, a 6’ 8 220 pounder who has more than just some potential to play at the next level. He averages over seven rebounds and 15 points per game. Tennessee also has 6’ 10, 270 pound, senior center Brian Williams, a player who averages about seven points and eight rebounds a game. This duo will be hard for Michigan to match-up against and UM must guard against early foul trouble, even if this means giving up a few hoops.
The big guard play is an interesting factor as both Tennessee and Michigan have superior talent at this spot. Tennessee has 6’7 swing-man Scotty Hopson, a junior, who also has next level potential. Michigan has Darius Morris, a player capable of game control and one who is tough to stop. The Wolverines also have rapidly developing Tim Hardaway Junior, a player who also is becoming more difficult to stop with each passing game. It will be interesting to see who guards whom in the guard match-up. Look for Stu Douglass to have a say in trying to stop part of the outside game, or slow down the drives to the hoop.
The tempo will be a big factor and Michigan will pick and choose its spots to run. Tennessee would not mind running and can score in the 80’s and 90’s if the Volunteer game is on. Other very good teams have not been able to score high totals against Michigan so look for a game in the 60’s, maybe the low 70’s if guys are hitting.
Athletes count and Tennessee always has excellent to superior athletic talent. There are years where people wonder how can Tennessee lose, then like everyone else the Volunteers do lose, but maybe a few more than most believe they should. The bottom line is Tennessee has more pure athletic talent, but Michigan may be more savvy on the floor.
Experience counts in NCAA tournaments for sure and Tennessee has six seniors and four juniors, compared to only two juniors for Michigan. On the surface this looks like a mismatch, but Michigan is playing with house money, few expected an eight seed and so just play and see what happens.
Discipline and poise count in tournament play, as one bad stretch is frequently the difference. Neither team gets an award for discipline or poise, but Michigan has improved immensely. Still, Tennessee can go into Illinois like periods where good talent with a lead suddenly finds itself on the down side of the scoreboard. Tennessee beat Pitt and other good teams, and also lost to Oakland, Charlotte, and the University of Charleston. Like Michigan, Tennessee played the league upper crust tough but did not crack though with the exception of a road win against in-state rival Vanderbilt.
Bruce Pearl has endured a tough year, but he can coach. His bench coaching is strong and Coach Pearl will light the troops up when the snooze button is activated. Overall the coaching is a push and the biggest difference will be how each decides to use different type of talent. Expect Michigan to run some packages that may give the fast Volunteers some Princeton type problems.
To Three or not to Three:
That will be Michigan’s question. Tennessee hits about 30 percent from three land and Michigan hits about 35% as a team with the primary shooters hitting around 37%. The threshold held for the GBMWolverine site, as stated before, is around 38% for the three-point shot to enter the effective range that makes taking three’s worth the risk.
The whistles in the first round game are frequently the softest of the tournament, and so Michigan will need to back off the tough guy Big Ten style of play the young team has recently developed. Get the flow of the game going, see how the whistles are going, and be smart; let the other team pile up the quick fouls.
In Summary:
This game should be exciting and hopefully close enough to give UM a shot. A Michigan win could set up a three for all with Duke. The spread is around two points, typical of an 8-9 game. Big name game pickers are going both ways, but many are saying that it will be tougher for Tennessee to adjust than for Michigan to adjust. We will soon see the results.
Written by GBMWolverine Staff
Go Blue — Wear Maize!