GBMW Doc4Blu Preview: Michigan at Michigan State

Michigan at Michigan State

The Paul Bunyan-Governor of Michigan Trophy

Doc4Blu — UM – MSU Preview

The writer has not looked forward to writing this preview and prediction article for quite some time. There are several reasons, none of which have any universal meaning. Lumping them all together let us say I do not like the opponent and while predicting what may happen in this game is not a monumental task, predicting the winner is not a lead cinch deal, far from it. This appears to be a toss up

After taking a look at the likely prelude scenarios and strategies, the reality comes to bear that anything can and has happened in the storied UM-MSU series. The game clock will be just fine and hopefully Dantonio’s doomsday clock will short out.

This game is indeed a likely toss up, all things being equal/normal. It could turn into a blowout if one team donates a collection of mistakes early and often. But if each team plays solid, the outcome should be in doubt. Note that the Spartans have won about every imaginable statistical match-up known to humanity. The yardage totals resemble a USC team with a good offense. The one struggle for the Lansing guys has been on third down.

Do not discount the 1-3 record of the Spartans; neither discount the 4-0 start by the Wolverines. But the discrepancy is not as big as the above numbers would have one believe. In fact there may be no discrepancy. Note: the Vegas boys know this as the money has shifted the Sparty way this week. But the old adage of take the home dog and the points still tempts many.

The biggest advantage the Spartans will enjoy is home field. A little love after a two game road swing is sweet medicine. Michigan, as everyone, EVERYONE, knows is a total unknown on the road with a still young team with two freshmen quarterbacks. On the surface, this factor appears problematical at the least and fatal at the worst. But UM has a freshman that just loves the stage and all the world is a stage according to Willie S. So, Tate, assuming he plays, will have moments, both ways. But I do not look for him to fold up from Spartie abuse. Denard Robinson should let the crowd and surroundings have little bearing. After all, he will be in East Lansing for a track meet, his feet against the entire defense.

So, what are the previously mentioned likely script elements mentioned in passing above? First, a look at what may happen from the Michigan State point of view. Michigan State has put up monster numbers in the air, albeit last weeks game had a 91-yard pass play in the final seconds.

Michigan State can pass and Michigan has trouble defending. BJ Cunningham is a big wide out with pretty good hands, speed, and moves. He runs the quick out and the flag out very well. This will be a tough match-up and I assume Coach Rob will attempt to get D. Warren on Cunningham as much as possible. Cousins looks pretty good and is a typical pro offense quarterback. He will hit the hot read to the backs on the out or over the middle: the back over the middle on the quick read is a staple of this offense. Sparty will try and get the UM corners to bite on the quick out and then up. It may work, because right now this play is tough to stop. Do not discount Mark Dell in the passing game. Although the film viewed this year is limited, look for offensive coordinator Treadwell to attack the safety seam with the big tight end Gantt down the middle.

The MSU running game has been ok but not as productive as the passing game. Dantonio and the staff may see how every team has controlled the ball against UM and go back to between the tackles football. Dantonio’s defense, like UM’s, will not be confused with the Steel Curtain. As a result, MSU may want to see if the game can be controlled on the ground, mixing in passing out of the play action mode this team uses so well.

Defensively, the Spartans will shoot the blitzes, like at Notre Dame, time and time again. This will leave guys one on one. Several times this year, MSU has not gotten to the perimeter in the passing game defense, both short and long outs. Several times being late has led to missed tackles. And so the reader may snidely but correctly say, “Like Michigan.” Pretty much so, maybe even more. Linebackers blitz leaving some pretty big holes. There is little doubt that Dantonio is going straight for Tate. What the result this strategy will yield is to be determined, the effect could go either way. MSU’s run defense is decent by not awe-inspiring. Notre Dame did gash the middle on quick hitters several times. The Spartans may throw the out and the long out very well, but so far the MSU defense has paid heavily on similar routes, especially in the end zone.

This sets up a true quandary for both coaching staffs: whereby MSU passes better but may attack UM’s weakness in the middle. Michigan runs better but may attack some weaknesses in the Spartan passing defense and on the perimeter.

On to the Wolverines considerations that may dictate game strategy. UM does appear to have a speed advantage and the Spartan corners can, like UM, be somewhat had. Last week the prediction was made that UM would attempt to hit the flank first and this did indeed happen as Carlos did the velociraptor dance again. Seems logical at this point to attack this area again and spread out the zone blitz heat. Make no mistake, IU presented match-up problems for UM’s defense and the IU offense is much more complicated and inclusive than that of MSU. But sophisticated and effective are not always mutually inclusive. MSU will exactly know where the isolations will be and Coach Rob and MSU offensive coordinator Treadwell may very well have a chess match. UM will take plenty of shots out of the read option and MSU likely will have mixed success, stuffing some on the right blitz calls or getting some sunburn.

Now, if I happened to be coaching up the defensive game plan for MSU the biggest fear would be Denard Robinson and the second biggest fear would be Kevin Koger. Tate, Brown, and Minor will get some yardage, but it might be sufficiently limited by the Sparties. Denard and Koger could prove to be controllable or devastating. There is no way the entire tight end package has been shown and the straight up the field tight end shots against a zone blitz (assuming throwing time) can be crushing. It is a matter of time before Denard breaks the big one in the big game. So, the question is: what time is it?

Let us pull some of this fun stuff together. Both teams have good offenses and so-so defenses. Both teams can be balanced. Both teams have had plenty of penalties. Both teams will play with fierce emotion. Both teams have two or more pretty decent running backs. Regardless of the records, there is not a great disparity between units on both teams. It is the belief here that the Sparty qb’s can throw a little better and a flat out fact that the Michigan qb’s can run better. The UM backs may have a speed advantage. The Sparty receivers are big and UM’s defenders are not. Special teams, excepting punting, are about equal.

And so on the surface the game should be equal. But in games like this the outcome frequently ends up on some whimsy “I never thought of that variable.” For example, which 19 year old will lay the ball on the carpet screwing up a great game plan? What will the weather be like? Will this game turn physically brutal or become a speed challenge?

All of the above leads to the big question: Can Michigan take back the state from the omnipotent Spartans, becoming the worst 5-0 team in history according to the antifree Press? Boy, I sure hope so. A loss to the Wolverines would be worse than an acorn in a vise rated at 3,000 pounds per square inch for the Spartans. But always fear a good team with its back to the wall, and Michigan State is a good team. Personally, ND, UM, and MSU can go in a hat and the winner may depend on the day. Let us hope it is the right day.

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Written by Doc4Blu