GBMWolverine: Michigan Football — Michigan State at Michigan — Prediction

Posted at 6:00am — 10/25/2008

GBMWolverine: Michigan Football — Michigan State at Michigan — Prediction

CoachBT:

Michigan State 27
Michigan 14

Josh Turel:

Talk about a big game for Rich Rodriguez and the seniors. There is a lot of talk from Spartan fans of a blow out but I don’t think we will see that. I was reviewing the film of the Northwestern game it reminded me a lot of what type of schemes we will see going against each other. Northwestern from a yardage perspective did very well against MSU but turnovers absolutely killed them, which I think will be the case here. Michigan’s offense will need the outside zone and belly plays to work because I think if the running game gets established, the play action off the zone play should be there.

If you watch the film Michigan State’s linebackers are extremely aggressive to backfield action and that is why the centers and guards will really have to be quick with their steps and reads in the zone schemes and get to the second level, otherwise it is going to be really tight to find running room.

From the looks of the film, the linebackers have absolutely no cutback responsibility, which looks to be delegated to the safeties. I don’t see the screen game being there other than out of the trips formation. Michigan State is primarily a 4-3 over team and they will play a lot of cover 4 with pressed corners and two low safeties to rotate to run support and also play deep quarters. I really respect Narduzzi and his defense; the problem for them under Narduzzi is giving up big plays in the passing game, which he acknowledges is a risk with his defense. The goal however is to stop the run first and I think that defense is built for a spread team like Michigan. Generally, you will see the backside defensive end stay home, Threet will see give read and the linebackers will fly down to press the zone play. The screen game will be tough to work with the squat cornerback but may have a chance to be effective if the safeties play deeper than usual.

On Michigan’s end, I think the defense will determine this game. Shafer and Narduzzi run the same defensive structure with the 4-3 over scheme coupled with a lot of cover 4 and the occasional three-man nickel front vs. spread. Michigan State’s offense is a lot like the power running teams of Jim Tressel at OSU. MSU’s offense is primarily a gap scheme and they run the power play ALOT! This all goes back to the typical pro style of thinking in running a smaller number of plays from a lot of different formations and motions. You will see “power” 90% of the time with a playside double team, down blocks from the center and onside guard, kick out by the motioning tight end or I set fullback and a backside pull from the guard.

The theory is in the name, it is power football because you are getting a lot of guys to the point of attack and using blocking angles. Being a 4-3 over team, Michigan will have the defensive end stacked on the tight end and the strong-side linebacker tucked just inside of him, playing the outside shoulder of the tackle. The keys to stopping power are one, the end stepping down and taking on the kick out block by the fullback or tight end. Second is flow from the linebackers, if you play the defense correctly, the play should cut back into the linebackers. Much like Michigan State, Michigan’s linebackers are taught to pursue aggressively and leave the cutback to the safeties and the rotation of the cover 4 system. Like the zone play, the power play has a system of reads and in theory the play can account for stunts and blitzes but they must be picked up. Don Treadwell will sprinkle in some zone and iso plays but the power play is the bulk of the running attack. The passing game works best with play action, which also makes the motions hard to key on. There is a mix of quick game and deep stuff but overall, I think Michigan is most worried about stopping play action passes. Lastly, the play that scares me the most is the screen play to Javon Ringer, its worked well all year and if you tuned into last week’s Michigan game, I don’t need to continue on.

Michigan State 27
Michigan 17

Keys to victory for Michigan:-Run from the trips, 3 X 1 will get the defense unbalanced and open up the zone play a bit. Martavious Odoms in the middle of the field-Stop the power play-No turnovers-Pressure Hoyer on play action situations and force the quick read.

ErocWolverine:

For Michigan to win they must play four quarters of football. Can they? I haven’t seen it yet so I am not banking on it for this game.

Michigan State 27
Michigan 20

Special Guest this week PaulWez:

For Michigan to win, they have to do three very simple things. One – the defense has to keep Javon Ringer in check. They don’t have to completely shut him down – but they have to keep him from having a career game. Two – Threet has to stay in the game, and be able to be effective health-wise. We have one serviceable QB on this team, and he’s it. Without him for quarters one thru four, we’re in trouble. Three – no stupid mistakes. That doesn’t mean 0 turnovers, it means don’t turn the ball over by a pass turning out to be lateral and not picking it up – it means no dumb personal foul penalties that give MSU field position and swing momentum. If all those three things happen, Michigan will win this game. But will they? My guess is we only get two outta three, and end up.

Michigan State 23
Michigan 21

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